Am I wrong in being utterly infuriated by speakers at that Welcome Fest conference slamming Dems for trying to raise the salience of incidents like the Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation? Anti-ICE sentiment seems like it’s breaking through not just to the “online left” but to your average suburban mom. It’s exactly imo the kind of line of attack that could help sink Trump’s approval ratings on immigration
I think there's some evidence that the public's perception on this varies pretty widely depending on which facet of the immigration question in general and Kilmar Abrego Garcia in particular, you're looking at. Trump still enjoys net approval on immigration and deportations. But that support erodes on specific cases, and erodes further still on the question of due process. My sense is large numbers (I don't have the numbers at hand) of Americans back revoking student visas of alleged subversives, and comparatively tiny numbers approve of scenes like Rumeysa Ozturk getting snatched off the street.
Though it sounds like a bit of a truism...and I don't really participate in the popularism - mass appeal debate that Matt and Brian are active in...the effectiveness of messaging breaking thru and mobilizing support probably depends a lot on the specifics and the details of the cases people choose to champion.
I think the WH knows this too, which is why they set about trying to discredit and vilify Garcia publicly, even after acknowledging in court his deportation was a mistake. It's political back-fill, hoping to take focus off of due process and put it on the idea that deportations are ridding the country of criminal outsiders.
People need to stop watching/listening to media with producers that cow tow to agent orange’s news spin whims! Thank god for independent journalists with integrity!!
Why aren’t more Dems and liberal journos focusing on the $500B cuts to *Medicare*?!? It seems like the most obvious line of attack possible for a Democrat, and yet I rarely see or hear about TV news commentators, newspaper columnists, or Dem pols talk about it. What could be better optics than making the GOP defend/ dismiss/address $500B in Medicare cuts? If the GOP can scream death panels for years, why can’t we scream about this true thing?!?
To be fair, at least this Wisconsin rep did mention it:
How can Democrats, or even some queasy Republicans get some attention to this whole Trump crypto corruption machine? Since the guy from NBC got dressed down in the Oval Office after asking about the jet bribe it seems to be radio silence aside from your random podcaster or blogger (or whatever the kids call this these days).
I don't advise Dems (Brian and I do different stuff), but I will say that naked corruption is still some of the lowest hanging fruit for political journalists. It's straightforward, it violates the principles of public service, it doesn't require both-sidesing, and it insults integrity and sunlight. I think a lot of the mainstream press, including WaPo and NYT have actually been doing some excellent and timely reporting on crypto, World Liberty, the Trump Org sons, and more.
That said, there are Republicans are aligned on their incentive to pass a bill, especially the tax cuts. Even with this Musk thing going on, the eventual pressure from all corners of the party, especially Trump, will be gigantic. I would bet on passage, eventually, once wavering members stare their futures in the face in Trump's GOP. More specifically, I don't see signs at the moment that the debt concerns of members like Chip Roy or Ron Johnson trump the ride-or-die-for-Trump ethos of the GOP. Musk's episode notwithstanding. What that means for blue-state GOP's like Mike Lawler and his sworn allegiance to parochial issues like SALT, it's hard to say. That could change over the summer, but I doubt it. I would be on passage, eventually.
Am I wrong in being utterly infuriated by speakers at that Welcome Fest conference slamming Dems for trying to raise the salience of incidents like the Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation? Anti-ICE sentiment seems like it’s breaking through not just to the “online left” but to your average suburban mom. It’s exactly imo the kind of line of attack that could help sink Trump’s approval ratings on immigration
I think there's some evidence that the public's perception on this varies pretty widely depending on which facet of the immigration question in general and Kilmar Abrego Garcia in particular, you're looking at. Trump still enjoys net approval on immigration and deportations. But that support erodes on specific cases, and erodes further still on the question of due process. My sense is large numbers (I don't have the numbers at hand) of Americans back revoking student visas of alleged subversives, and comparatively tiny numbers approve of scenes like Rumeysa Ozturk getting snatched off the street.
Though it sounds like a bit of a truism...and I don't really participate in the popularism - mass appeal debate that Matt and Brian are active in...the effectiveness of messaging breaking thru and mobilizing support probably depends a lot on the specifics and the details of the cases people choose to champion.
I think the WH knows this too, which is why they set about trying to discredit and vilify Garcia publicly, even after acknowledging in court his deportation was a mistake. It's political back-fill, hoping to take focus off of due process and put it on the idea that deportations are ridding the country of criminal outsiders.
Thank you for stepping in, Todd! It's been interesting and illuminating to read your thoughts. Much appreciated!
Thank you, it's been super fun!
People need to stop watching/listening to media with producers that cow tow to agent orange’s news spin whims! Thank god for independent journalists with integrity!!
Thank you Todd. That makes so much sense. turn our heads from one point of disgust to many others.
Todd, thank you for all your work and communication! We appreciate it!
Why aren’t more Dems and liberal journos focusing on the $500B cuts to *Medicare*?!? It seems like the most obvious line of attack possible for a Democrat, and yet I rarely see or hear about TV news commentators, newspaper columnists, or Dem pols talk about it. What could be better optics than making the GOP defend/ dismiss/address $500B in Medicare cuts? If the GOP can scream death panels for years, why can’t we scream about this true thing?!?
To be fair, at least this Wisconsin rep did mention it:
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lqsiuxstrf2v
The quality of puns has been extremely high during your time here, Todd. In your opinion, how worried should Brian be?
I think Brian should be very worried, for a variety of important reasons. However I consider his pun game exceedingly strong.
How can Democrats, or even some queasy Republicans get some attention to this whole Trump crypto corruption machine? Since the guy from NBC got dressed down in the Oval Office after asking about the jet bribe it seems to be radio silence aside from your random podcaster or blogger (or whatever the kids call this these days).
I don't advise Dems (Brian and I do different stuff), but I will say that naked corruption is still some of the lowest hanging fruit for political journalists. It's straightforward, it violates the principles of public service, it doesn't require both-sidesing, and it insults integrity and sunlight. I think a lot of the mainstream press, including WaPo and NYT have actually been doing some excellent and timely reporting on crypto, World Liberty, the Trump Org sons, and more.
Are you going to give us a prediction on what will happen with the Big Beautiful Bill bill?
No, but it will be fascinating and fun to watch Musk and Trump go to war over it while Mike Johnson begs them both to stop.
That said, there are Republicans are aligned on their incentive to pass a bill, especially the tax cuts. Even with this Musk thing going on, the eventual pressure from all corners of the party, especially Trump, will be gigantic. I would bet on passage, eventually, once wavering members stare their futures in the face in Trump's GOP. More specifically, I don't see signs at the moment that the debt concerns of members like Chip Roy or Ron Johnson trump the ride-or-die-for-Trump ethos of the GOP. Musk's episode notwithstanding. What that means for blue-state GOP's like Mike Lawler and his sworn allegiance to parochial issues like SALT, it's hard to say. That could change over the summer, but I doubt it. I would be on passage, eventually.