Do you think Democrats should make the Supreme Court more of an issue in the election? Seems like Trump possibly winning and Republicans winning the senate could scare a lot of people into voting because Trump would then possibly/probably get even more picks to the Supreme Court! If Alito and Thomas retire then Trump would end up having 5 total picks to the court. That’s over half!! I just think this could be a powerful message. Curious as to what you think.
Hey Brian I tried to click the link in this bullet: "Meanwhile, it’s quite clear that Alito is lying about what happened, and about his—sorry, his wife’s MAGA affiliation." It was an error/broken link. I don't usually click on links in articles, but I was sure curious about what proof there is that Alito is lying. What a scumbag! (I am an editor by trade and was tempted to check your other links are working but didn't do you that favor, sorry!)
I don't want to see a hung jury, but it does allow for the hilarious possibility of the parties being ordered back to court to start a retrial on Monday. I can't imagine Trump was hoping to do it again.
Me either! I have a hard time imagining they'd retry him, because I'm a pessimist, but perhaps if it's clear that one MAGA juror spoiled the verdict they would.
Not being in the courtroom, it's tough to make judgments with confidence, but Trump sure seems blatantly guilty. That's exactly the sort of case you retry when it hangs, but there are obviously political that could cut in other directions. Still, it's nice to allow myself to think a hung jury just gets Trump more weeks of trial when he'd rather be campaigning, likely ending in convictions.
Hi Brian, happy Thursday! I'm a victim of the current tech recession and I'm wondering if A) any lawmaker is even aware of it- layoffs for about two years now- and B) whether they're willing to suspend H1B while the tech labor market is oversaturated. Thanks!
Lawmakers are definitely aware of it, particularly those from CA. I can't see any legislative action to change visa policy on any matter until approps, at the very earliest. Wish I had better hunches to offer.
I know that income has matched general inflation in many cases, but aren't people still being hit harder than pre-2020 due to the rise in price of core goods and services? Food prices and rent have risen much faster than inflation in general, and higher interest rates resulted in increased credit card interest. That makes up the majority of expenses for low wage earners. Plus, there’s the end to the benefits in the American Rescue Plan, which most only recognize as less money in their bank accounts, and the return of student loans. Given all that, isn’t the increased cost of living a real problem, or am I missing something?
You are, respectfully. Measures of inflation, and thus real wages, include those categories. Some things have become more expensive, faster, and others have become cheaper, but in aggregate, Americans have more disposable income than they did before. "Sticker Shock" may create a widespread psychological sense that things are overpriced (and thus people are falling behind) but most people are not actually falling behind.
Thanks for the reply! I still worry that Americans have less money overall, since disposal income doesn't include rent, food, credit card interest, etc.
I'm in a rural area that's feeling the pinch of high prices without any particularly noticeable economic gains, so Matt's post rings true for me. Telling people around here that we're in the middle of unprecedented prosperity will go over like a lead balloon. I think it's dumb that people blame Biden for this, but it's not just an optical illusion. The point for me is, I'd like to figure out how to talk to the wobbly Kennedy-curious voter, or the politically disinterested person who's moving towards Trump because of his simple "everything bad is Biden's fault" BS. There has to be a better message than "well actually things are better than you think", or "sorry about this area but other parts of the country are doing great".
Just a quick thanks. You have been on fire of late - saying things that need to be said in a way that resonates. You don't pull punches in calling out the democratic party on the error of their ways. But, so very importantly, you do it constructively without harmful attacks. Yes there are clearly problems but we need to build up not burn down.
I think it's a little less sentimental than this, but not entirely different. Biden, like most of the nat sec establishment, views Israel's security as a very high priority when the alternative (in their minds) is Hamas retaining power. (Notice the Saudis, for instance, are not as up in arms about what Israel's doing as western peace activists.) In that narrow respect, it's analogous to their emphasis on defending Ukraine. I'm not endorsing the reasoning, but I think that's how Biden views the national-interest calculation.
Even less sentimentally, I think there are mega-donors for whom Israel is sacrosanct, and they’re not all Adelsons—as in, they give to Democrats and might stop on a dime.
The Biden campaign had Robert De Niro go out and he ended up kinda yelling at some MAGAs outside the courthouse yesterday, and it definitely made headlines, does this pass the Beutler "drive the agenda" standard?
Yes and no! Yes in that I totally support the campaign gimmick. No, in that Dems tend to get worn down by these kinds of criticisms, agree to break with their conventions as a box checking exercise, and then say "see, we did the thing!" My plea is for Democrats to think of politics in this way as a permanent condition.
Might have been last week's convo, but I'm genuinely interested if there's been some Durbin reporting/insight wrt his reluctance to use his power. I can think up 4 or 5 reasons (my favorite being that he's concerned that SCOTUS investigations/impeachments will just turn into more bad faith political football), but if someone actually knows, I'd love to hear it! Thanks.
I don’t get the consternation over the definition of “inflation” - it technically, strictly, means an *increase* in the price of something but colloquially it means just the high prices we are experiencing now.
If I’m in a car going 120 mph, I don’t care that we reached 120 mph quickly, I care that we are going 120 mph, and I want the car to slow down. And no amount of explaining how if the car slows down the economy crashes is going to fix that. Life is not an economics exam, and I say that as someone with an econ bachelor’s.
As an aside, tut-tutting about basic economics is an awful thing to do.
I reject the analogy. It would work better if, as your car stabilized at 120, it also developed a roll cage and cushions and the road got wider and suddenly you're just reaching your destination faster. That's why it's significant that real incomes are up. Living standards are up. Looking at high prices and thinking "higher than I remember!" is like looking at the speedometer of a bullet train and thinking "this is faster than I'm used to traveling, and it makes me uneasy."
Do you think Democrats should make the Supreme Court more of an issue in the election? Seems like Trump possibly winning and Republicans winning the senate could scare a lot of people into voting because Trump would then possibly/probably get even more picks to the Supreme Court! If Alito and Thomas retire then Trump would end up having 5 total picks to the court. That’s over half!! I just think this could be a powerful message. Curious as to what you think.
I agree they should, and think they will. It goes hand-in-glove with the abortion issue and they WILL be campaigning on that aggressively.
Hey Brian I tried to click the link in this bullet: "Meanwhile, it’s quite clear that Alito is lying about what happened, and about his—sorry, his wife’s MAGA affiliation." It was an error/broken link. I don't usually click on links in articles, but I was sure curious about what proof there is that Alito is lying. What a scumbag! (I am an editor by trade and was tempted to check your other links are working but didn't do you that favor, sorry!)
Oh, weird. The link was to the New York Times followup on the timeline of the altercation(s) with neighbors. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/28/us/justice-alito-neighbors-stop-steal-flag.html
His story to the senators is at odds with that report, which is based in part on police records.
I don't want to see a hung jury, but it does allow for the hilarious possibility of the parties being ordered back to court to start a retrial on Monday. I can't imagine Trump was hoping to do it again.
Me either! I have a hard time imagining they'd retry him, because I'm a pessimist, but perhaps if it's clear that one MAGA juror spoiled the verdict they would.
Not being in the courtroom, it's tough to make judgments with confidence, but Trump sure seems blatantly guilty. That's exactly the sort of case you retry when it hangs, but there are obviously political that could cut in other directions. Still, it's nice to allow myself to think a hung jury just gets Trump more weeks of trial when he'd rather be campaigning, likely ending in convictions.
Hi Brian, happy Thursday! I'm a victim of the current tech recession and I'm wondering if A) any lawmaker is even aware of it- layoffs for about two years now- and B) whether they're willing to suspend H1B while the tech labor market is oversaturated. Thanks!
Lawmakers are definitely aware of it, particularly those from CA. I can't see any legislative action to change visa policy on any matter until approps, at the very earliest. Wish I had better hunches to offer.
I know that income has matched general inflation in many cases, but aren't people still being hit harder than pre-2020 due to the rise in price of core goods and services? Food prices and rent have risen much faster than inflation in general, and higher interest rates resulted in increased credit card interest. That makes up the majority of expenses for low wage earners. Plus, there’s the end to the benefits in the American Rescue Plan, which most only recognize as less money in their bank accounts, and the return of student loans. Given all that, isn’t the increased cost of living a real problem, or am I missing something?
You are, respectfully. Measures of inflation, and thus real wages, include those categories. Some things have become more expensive, faster, and others have become cheaper, but in aggregate, Americans have more disposable income than they did before. "Sticker Shock" may create a widespread psychological sense that things are overpriced (and thus people are falling behind) but most people are not actually falling behind.
Thanks for the reply! I still worry that Americans have less money overall, since disposal income doesn't include rent, food, credit card interest, etc.
I'm in a rural area that's feeling the pinch of high prices without any particularly noticeable economic gains, so Matt's post rings true for me. Telling people around here that we're in the middle of unprecedented prosperity will go over like a lead balloon. I think it's dumb that people blame Biden for this, but it's not just an optical illusion. The point for me is, I'd like to figure out how to talk to the wobbly Kennedy-curious voter, or the politically disinterested person who's moving towards Trump because of his simple "everything bad is Biden's fault" BS. There has to be a better message than "well actually things are better than you think", or "sorry about this area but other parts of the country are doing great".
Just a quick thanks. You have been on fire of late - saying things that need to be said in a way that resonates. You don't pull punches in calling out the democratic party on the error of their ways. But, so very importantly, you do it constructively without harmful attacks. Yes there are clearly problems but we need to build up not burn down.
Thank you so much for this note Becky!
What explains Biden’s absolute face plant on Israel?
In his heart of hearts he believes Israel is the good guys.
I think it's a little less sentimental than this, but not entirely different. Biden, like most of the nat sec establishment, views Israel's security as a very high priority when the alternative (in their minds) is Hamas retaining power. (Notice the Saudis, for instance, are not as up in arms about what Israel's doing as western peace activists.) In that narrow respect, it's analogous to their emphasis on defending Ukraine. I'm not endorsing the reasoning, but I think that's how Biden views the national-interest calculation.
Even less sentimentally, I think there are mega-donors for whom Israel is sacrosanct, and they’re not all Adelsons—as in, they give to Democrats and might stop on a dime.
The Biden campaign had Robert De Niro go out and he ended up kinda yelling at some MAGAs outside the courthouse yesterday, and it definitely made headlines, does this pass the Beutler "drive the agenda" standard?
Yes and no! Yes in that I totally support the campaign gimmick. No, in that Dems tend to get worn down by these kinds of criticisms, agree to break with their conventions as a box checking exercise, and then say "see, we did the thing!" My plea is for Democrats to think of politics in this way as a permanent condition.
Might have been last week's convo, but I'm genuinely interested if there's been some Durbin reporting/insight wrt his reluctance to use his power. I can think up 4 or 5 reasons (my favorite being that he's concerned that SCOTUS investigations/impeachments will just turn into more bad faith political football), but if someone actually knows, I'd love to hear it! Thanks.
Don't sleep on "old and lazy!"
I don’t get the consternation over the definition of “inflation” - it technically, strictly, means an *increase* in the price of something but colloquially it means just the high prices we are experiencing now.
If I’m in a car going 120 mph, I don’t care that we reached 120 mph quickly, I care that we are going 120 mph, and I want the car to slow down. And no amount of explaining how if the car slows down the economy crashes is going to fix that. Life is not an economics exam, and I say that as someone with an econ bachelor’s.
As an aside, tut-tutting about basic economics is an awful thing to do.
I reject the analogy. It would work better if, as your car stabilized at 120, it also developed a roll cage and cushions and the road got wider and suddenly you're just reaching your destination faster. That's why it's significant that real incomes are up. Living standards are up. Looking at high prices and thinking "higher than I remember!" is like looking at the speedometer of a bullet train and thinking "this is faster than I'm used to traveling, and it makes me uneasy."
Guilty on all counts. Time to kick this convicted felon to the curb.