AMA Thursday

A picture of stealth.

(Photo by baona)

Imagine how much fun today’s AMA will be if we get a verdict between send time and 2 p.m. on the east coast. Actually, on the off chance that happens, I may need to shift things around and connect with you all a little earlier or later than usual. As always, I’m grateful for everyone’s forbearance.

• We’re on verdict watch. Responsible journalists would leave it at that—there’s not much more to say that doesn’t amount to pure speculation. Fortunately I’m not that kind of journalist, haha!

• A friend asked me to play oddsmaker yesterday, and here’s what I said: “I’d put even odds on at least some convictions, and on a stealth juror hanging the jury on all counts. Basically 50-50 since I think there’s no chance he gets acquitted across the board.”

• That’s still where my head is, for the most part, but I confess to finding this article unsettling. It’s admittedly not much to go on, but the fact that Trump has pinned all his hopes for nullification on a particular juror, known to his advisers, and has identifying information about that person—well, it got my spidey-sense tingling. This is Trump, after all, someone who fired an FBI director, dangled pardons, gave pardons, hid stolen state secrets, etc., all to avoid accountability. Who honestly believes he’s above tampering with or bribing a juror?

• Further paranoia: The jury’s notes for the judge yesterday—to review David Pecker’s and Michael Cohen’s testimony about the catch-and-kill scheme, and to repeat jury instructions—struck me as consistent with most jurors trying to corner a recalcitrant nullifier pinning all their doubts on the (largely irrelevant) fact that Michael Cohen is not a trustworthy person.

• I have a second-order concern that if Trump is convicted, Republicans will continue doing what they’re already doing (smearing the judge and jury, tearing down the justice system to shield Donald Trump from consequences) while Democrats will land on a boilerplate message like “Republicans nominating someone who’s now a convicted felon is Republicans problem, we’re going to focus on the kitchen-table issues affecting America’s families,” all but guaranteeing that “Trump = felon” stories drop out of the news after a few days.

• Now that you’ve enjoyed a grand tour inside my head, other news:

• Justice Samuel Alito wrote an at turns hilarious and contemptuous letter to senators yesterday explaining why he won’t recuse from January 6 cases, despite being (quite obviously) an insurrection sympathizer.

• Democrats are now tossing the hot potato to John Roberts, who clearly won’t and maybe can’t do anything, instead of promising to use their own powers to press the issue further.

• Meanwhile, it’s quite clear that Alito is lying about what happened, and about his—sorry, his wife’s MAGA affiliation.

• Via Zach Everson, here’s how Donald Trump continues to steal from you and me: “The Secret Service has paid Trump's 2024 campaign $817,000. The agency owes it an additional $361,000. The campaign has, in turn, paid one of Trump’s companies $4.2 million.” My kingdom for a Democratic Party that would make an issue of stuff like this, or simply turn off the protection unless Trump reimburses tax payers for the private benefit.

• Inflation’s been in a pretty healthy place for over a year, and incomes keep rising faster than it, so reporters, led around like sheep by Republican operatives, have embraced the false notion that inflation is “cumulative,” such that President Biden will always be struggling with “inflation” unless prices drop, which they won’t unless there’s a terrible recession, at which point he’d have a new fatal liability. That’s called rigging the game.

• Meanwhile: Consumer confidence beat expectations in May, but is still stuck well below where it ought to be—or rather where we’d expect it to be, given economic fundamentals.

• Good point from Laura Rozen!

• Resist Trump, don’t cower.

What’d I miss? Paid-subscriber live chat starts at or around 2 p.m., so long as the jury’s still out. Comments are open for members as always.

UPDATE: Let’s chat!