I'm middle-class, recently retired. I've typically donated maybe $1,000 across various races in presidential-voting years. At this point I'm so invested in "It's got to be someone other than Biden" that I realize I'll hate myself if I don't max out on a contribution to whoever that ends up being, just as soon as we know who (s)he is. I wouldn't be surprised if there are many thousands of us in this position.
If Biden were "freed" of all the bullshit of the party wringing its hands and wetting the bed, would he be more comfortable saying out loud all the stuff the Dems are too polite to crow about? Just asking: my heart is breaking. I am super angry how Biden is being pushed without a meaningful plan. Playing int GOP, Russia, China etc...feeling like a few privileged Dems don't trust us working so very hard as a strong grassroots effort and that we just don't count. 🖕
We don't yet have a meaningful post-Biden plan, but isn't it reasonable to think that Pelosi, et.al., are considering and discussing the options as part of whatever discussions they're having with Biden's camp and that should/when Biden steps aside, the proposed plan will be a part and parcel of that announcement? At this late stage, Kamala Harris is really the only reasonable alternative, for a number of reasons. We're not going to construct a dream ticket at this point. As I see it, we just need a candidate who is not showing signs of age-related illness 24/7, to give us at least a chance of waging a competitive campaign.
Thanks for your reply. I think we should stay the course with Biden Harris ticket. Rules of succession apply if necessary. Playing into wrong playbook by switching horses now. Biden best president ever.
They're imperfect, and their quality varies, but they're not all inaccurate. If a poll is well-conducted and repeated consistently over a period of time, and its results are consistent or they trend in one direction over that time, chances are very good that it is telling us something meaningful about public opinion. And, FWIW, in 2020 and 2016 the polls underestimated Trump's support and overestimated Democratic support. Which means that if the polls are saying Trump is leading, it's likely he's leading by more than the polls indicate. Polls are the best indicator we have of what the public is thinking at a given point in time. We ignore them at our peril.
Have you been around older people? I’m nearly 66, so seen this happen over and over. Someone is sharp, energetic, with it…until they aren’t. People go downhill gradually, then all at once. It’s sad when it’s your parents, but it’s terrifying when it’s 1) your president and 2) the firewall between democracy and fascism.
Biden continues to do his job. He remains the best president ever. Rules of succession apply should he be unable to perform his job: just like any other president. Do you have a plan to replace him with a viable winning ticket? Dems need to get behind their candidate: Joe Biden and ensure Dems win presidency, Senate and House.
“Ensure”? Just how do you ensure that? Presto-change-o, zippety-doo-da, nuthin’ up my sleeve? Have you talked to any 20 or 30-somethings lately? Many of my friends are old school Dems who are loyal to Biden no matter what, and I can’t for the life of me figure out what you’re all thinking.
By voting and encouraging loved ones, friends, acquaintances and strangers to vote. Participate in grassroots efforts to get out the vote including postcarding, letter writing, texting, canvassing and phone banking. We can make a difference to ensure Dems win from president through all offices, federal, state and local
I'm not sure what the best way to proceed is, but I continue to think the "replace Biden" people seriously underestimate how ugly and difficult it would be to swap in a new candidate, especially a non-Harris candidate. Just one example among many: I think replacing Biden would generate bad faith litigation that, with a functioning judiciary, should be no obstacle but, given the judiciary we have, could quite plausibly hand the presidency to Trump.
Among other things, I find it notable that non-Harris candidates apparently remain in play, not to mention that no one appears to actually have a plan.
FWIW, I've never particularly liked Harris, but I don't know how you could go with anyone else as a replacement candidate. The optics of big money Dem donors handpicking a candidate contrary to the votes of millions of primary voters are really bad, and, while I can think of some defenses to that line of attack, none of them are really any good.
I agree completely. The only realistic alternative now is Harris, for a ton of reasons. Another thing about the litigation risk to consider is that Biden isn't the nominee yet. He's the presumptive nominee - he hasn't yet been formally nominated by the Party. I don't think any ballots have been prepared yet. So legally, I don't think this would actually be a "swap" (of Harris for Biden). I have to think any GOP lawsuits are meritless and possibly frivolous, but I have not researched that or anything. The DNC has election attorneys and I'm sure they've been consulted. The GOP also desperately wants Biden to stay in the race, so naturally they're going to threaten lawsuits and do whatever else they can to ensure that he stays in the race.
That's true - They could find one MAGA judge who agrees with them. But if that happens, we then appeal it to the state appellate level, where there will be a panel of judges (at least 3) that will hear that appeal. And if we lose there the state Supreme Court comes next. The higher up you go the less likelihood of some renegade MAGA judge prevailing. So I think this all has to be factored in, but end of day if we are as nearly certain as can be that Biden can't win (which I am), we have to take the risk.
I fully expect lawsuits would be filed in federal court (probably Texas), and then it would go to a federal appeals court and then scotus. Zero chance this get decided in state court.
I recall the lawsuits over the 2000 election recount in Florida started in state court, then went up to the Florida Supreme Court and then finally to SCOTUS (which reversed the Florida Supreme Court on utterly bogus grounds, but that's another story). Each state has its own body of election law, so I think any action by the GOP would begin in a state court and would need to go through the state appellate process before getting to federal court. But in any event, it just seems to me that if we decide to stick with a hobbled, ineffective candidate with little chance of winning in November because GOP courts might screw us even though the law is on our side, then we have basically already surrendered the war we're purporting to fight in this election.
It would be an incredibly bitter process, just go look at any of the Democratic blogs. People are incredibly angry at the attempt to replace Biden already - I have heard of no plans to make people feel any better about taking away their primary vote and with replacing Biden with someone the doners prefer. I have seen no polling that shows me anyone doing better than him other than Michelle Obama. Then there is the money - other than Harris no-one else can touch the campaign donations. I hear no plan from you other than Biden is replaced - kumbaya breaks out. I guarantee you there will be no kumbaya - there will be a bitter inter-democratic fight that must be managed. If Harris is passed over the fight will be twice as bad. The only way this works if Biden retires the presidency and full time campaigns for Harris. I will support the democratic nominee whoever it is - but your ideas are poorly fleshed out and do not take into consideration those who do not agree with you
I've been aware of this all along and I've noted how almost nobody in public is factoring it into the discussion. As I understand it though (based solely on what I think I heard Rachel Bitecofer say), legally Harris becoming the nominee poses the least risk overall, and that any lawsuits are losers on the merits, so assuming a functioning judiciary, they should just be nuisance suits. I have to think Pelosi, Schumer, et.al., have considered and assessed this risk, at least preliminarily. But at the end of the day, really, what chance do we have with Biden atop the ticket? I mean, let's stop kidding ourselves: he probably is now showing early signs of dementia. He's going to get worse. He's obviously losing this race right now. How can he come back?
I think it’s a terrible mistake to assume Pelosi and Schumer are either taking into account all the relevant considerations or that they are weighing them appropriately. Their political instincts over the last 8 years have been disastrous.
I think Biden is showing signs of aging, not dementia.
I also think Biden is not doomed to lose, at least no more so than any replacement, none of whom have yet been fully scrutinized by the media or the GOP.
Hasn't Harris been scrutinized pretty heavily? As the VP pick 4 years ago, I'm sure they did a deep dive. Maybe not as deep as for a presidential candidate, but still.
How have their political instincts been disastrous? I ask genuinely out of curiosity - I'm not a fan of either particularly.
I would think that they haven't taken into consideration *all* relevant considerations or weighed them appropriately - they're human beings prone to error like all of us, and they're in a completely unprecedented situation, working with no time to spare. I just think they probably have not ignored the question of whether what they're doing is legal.
End of the day, Biden and his family and team, for all they accomplished, have now left the party and us with a huge, stinking, fetid pile of shit. They fucked up first by deciding to run for re-election, contrary to clear polling data indicating most voters thought he was too old for another term, and contrary to his 2020 promise (never stated explicitly but very heavily implied) to serve only one term given his age. Then as he declined noticeably, they actively hid his condition from the public and said things privately about it that we now know couldn't have been true. Then they asked for this early debate (that was going to change the race, show the nation how spry Joe was and vault him into an insurmountable lead), negotiated rules that heavily favored Trump and then made pathetic excuses after he bungled it too badly for mere words to describe. Then they retreated to Camp David for a weekend of soul searching and reached the brilliant decision to hopelessly fight for the nomination for another month while Rome burned. Honestly, they've already trashed Biden's legacy completely, but I'm just ranting.....
We're having this exchange in the comments of an essay by Brian Beutler, who has been beating the "Dem leadership is making bad strategic decisions" drum for many years. An example: Dem officials' reluctance to fully confront Trump and his enablers both during and after his presidency has been a colossal blunder.
Right - Brian has criticized Dems in Congress for fighting Trump too passively - for being unwilling to impeach Trump sooner, for not going all out to get his tax returns. Those seem to me more like matters of tactical competence and will rather than political instinct. I'm splitting hairs a bit, but by "political instinct" I thought you meant their ability to accurately gauge public opinion or predict how things are likely to go in the next election cycle. I though maybe there were some specific failures in that regard that I didn't know about...
There is a Reuters story from a day or two ago in which they interviewed some Republican former FEC member who speculated about Republican litigation to prevent the transfer of the Biden Harris war chest to a new candidate. He even thought it might be a plausible lawsuit if the money is transferred before the Democratic national convention. You can bet that the RNC already has Republican shysters working on a complaint and trying to figure out which District Court they should file in to have the greatest chance of getting a Trump judge.
I think everybody needs to adjust their expectations of a replacement nominee at this point in time. We're not going to get a dream ticket of Whitmer/Whoever. It will be Harris/Whoever. And that by itself is indeed fraught with risk, some known, some unknown. It's not going to guarantee victory; it might only lift our chance of winning slightly. But given all we know right now, it's the least risky way to go. Because if nominating Biden in his current state doesn't guarantee losing in November, what does?
Biden’s many years of public service are admirable . His presidency began repairing the damage of MAGATs, and I respect his experience and wisdom. He surrounds himself with smart, committed, courageous civil servants who believe, as I do, that America’s strength is in its diversity, as well as its social and intellectual progress. Age is an undeniable factor in the coming years as those who support our democracy prepare to fend off authoritarian autocracy. President Biden is a powerful weapon in this confrontation, but in a role as senior advisor. Turning the reins over to someone with undeniable vigor, intellect and commitment to democracy is a statesman’s move. It doesn’t matter which one of the many competent Democrats leads the party, I’m all in, and my vote is for those who wish to maintain and further the small d democratic ideals that the United States represents.
Microsoft has PROVED that 60% of all cyber attacks into the U.S. come from Russia. This includes: food and supplies, elections and polls, banks and finance, medical and hospitals, airlines, and on and on. Russians have tainted our election polls FOR ONE PURPOSE - to help Donald Trump win. Russians know that Americans believe the polls - but what if the polls are providing tainted research and incorrect numbers? The entire movement to get Biden to step down is based on this incorrect information. Today’s global cyber attack on airlines, banks, and other businesses is an attack on Microsoft software and has hit Germany, Australia, the U.K. and the United States - all democratic countries.
“On November 9, 2016, just a few minutes after Donald Trump was elected president of the United States, a man named Vyacheslav Nikonov approached a microphone in the Russian State Duma (their equivalent of the US House of Representatives) and made a very unusual statement. ‘Dear friends, respected colleagues!” Nikonov said. “Three minutes ago, Hillary Clinton admitted her defeat in US presidential elections, and a second ago Trump started his speech as the elected president of the United States of America, and I congratulate YOU on this’.” (Journalist Craig Unger talks about Russia, Trump, and “one of the greatest intelligence operations in history.” VOX Politics, by Sean Illing, January 12, 2019.)
When Nikonov congratulated the Russian DUMA for Trump’s win of the U.S. presidency, the Russians were celebrating “one of the greatest intelligence and clandestine operations in modern history.” The Russian KGB had trapped, skillfully developed, and maneuvered a Russian “asset” into the highest political position in the United States - President Donald Trump.” (Unger)
If Joe Biden steps down now - in the last stage of this election process - it will only help Donald Trump win. Help convince Biden to stay in the election.
Russians and Trumpists are pushing that it is "anti-democratic" for us to not go with the results of the primaries -- primaries which were as meaningful as a Russian election, in having only one real candidate. The serious contenders were dissuaded from running. This also ignores what Josh Marshall has observed -- that in his April 26 interview with Howard Stern, Biden was fully his old self; he's steeply declined since. The primary votes were for who he's been, not who Biden is now.
Biden has the experience and the wisdom that is learned over 50 years in public service, and Harris - whom I think is great - is there as backup if and when needed. I am not surprised that Stern would say that Biden has "steeply declined." NOT TRUE.
I spent twenty years living and working in six dictator-led countries. I became bi-cultural over these years. This provides me a "little" insight into the Trump-Russian connection since I was there when Trump was. The Russians understand that our voters are swayed by poll statistics - a lesson learned from the 2020 election. This information provides everyone from government officials, pundits, broadcasters and newspaper reporters, to ordinary citizens vital information that they accept as factual. This is especially true during elections. Well what do you think happens when the polls are reporting tainted numbers - not researched and factual.
information?
The Russians just did a massive cyber attack on airlines, banking, broadcasting, and other businesses - all running on Microsoft software - and in a large group of democratic countries: U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Australia, Canada, etc. It is Microsoft who has the USG contract to fight Russia's cyber attacks.
Elizabeth, That wasn't a Russian cyber attack. That was a bug in an update to CrowdStrike's antivirus product for Windows.
If you watched the Trump-Biden debate, and Biden's interviews since, and thought you were seeing the old Biden -- even of 6 months ago -- I'd like to borrow your rose-colored glasses. As for wisdom, it was not wise for Biden to claim that only he can do it, as he has several times recently. The wise Biden was the one who said half a year back that the Democratic Party has many others who can serve as well as him.
Now, assuming Dean Phillips was not on Biden's list of 50, all of those on the list were dissuaded, by some combination of advice from others and their own reckoning.
Huh? Not sure which "this" you mean. Trump's campaign director was quoted making the argument that being "democratic" requires Democrats to stick with Biden as primary winner just last night. As for whether Russia's troll farms are using AI, that's something I haven't seen reported on. They've got plenty of people sitting at desks, not sure they need AI amplification.
No I am not arguing that Harris is a Russian asset - that's a bit far fetched even for me. Ha ha. Biden has the experience and the wisdom that is learned over 50 years in public service, and Harris - whom I think is great - is there as backup if and when needed. Biden has already become the elected ballot candidate unanimously across our country. Let's not try at the last minute change the ticket. Elizabeth
Right you aren't arguing it just implying it. One of the most unhinged posts I've ever read btw so good job there. Biden is a senile cryptkeeper who can't go the distance and will lose in November. If you value democracy more than an old man's ego you want him to get out ASAP
So reviewing the news today I would say the source of the limbo the Democratic Party seems to be roughly twofold. One is that Joe Biden himself is not convinced he should drop out. The other is that around him a war is raging over whether Kamala Harris would be the logical next nominee. I think the reason so many progressive caucus members have suddenly become Biden supporters is that they actually want Harris (as, I should say, do I). They think, however, that powerful forces within the party and among donors don't. So on the one hand, I'm not sure how many people really are convinced Biden can win, other than Biden himself. I think you have a lot of people who are "riding with Biden" to prevent Harris from being passed over, not so much because they think Biden can win. The one thing I don't know but obviously is a huge factor is what Biden thinks of Harris. I do believe Joe Biden is a wonderful and good human being, and draw some comfort from the idea that if he can be brought to think clearly about the matter, he will make at least a moral decision (I'm not talking about a 'college try': for me, any decision in which the #1 priority isn't beating Donald Trump is immoral).
I think Biden is doing ok except for the one debate - he does look old, but he's looked old for a while - he's had an incredibly successful presidency - far more successful than Obama or Clinton and is finally moving the US away from neoliberalism. I think the least risky move is to stick with him and show Kamala Harris doing presidential things in case she needs to replace him.
Totally agree. I just wrote something along similar lines, but with an emphasis on another aspect here that I think is interesting. Biden's awful-to-lackluster performances may not have been enough on their own to trigger a sufficient response from Democrats for him to step aside. If he does, we may have Trump's recent string of good luck to thank as well. The schadenfreude if Democrats are able to upend Republicans' confidence and momentum will be delicious. Biden had better man up and step down. I respect him and the job he has done, but if he stays in and Trump gets his landslide, the damage will likely be even greater than had he failed in 2020.
“Any new ticket, consisting of any of the younger stars whose names get batted around most frequently, would enjoy something like the mass commitment Obama enjoyed in 2008 and 2012.” Really? The certainty here is something else.
And I’d like Harris, but I think some of our swing state swing voter brethren are irredeemably racist and sexist. Sue me. That’s what I think. Joe is a little more behind than I’d like in I guess a lot of polls, and in somewhat better shape in others, running against an obviously demented freak. I think the likelihood he can pull this out matches the likelihood of any other scenario anyone has dreamed up. (I mean, less and less as the bloodletting continues but…) Yes he could do more sunsetty things in the next few months. But GOP lawyers could also ratfuck any alternative plan we come up with too. It’s a hard problem. But saying things like the above with certainty seems… odd.
“The president told both leaders he is the nominee of the party. He plans to win, and looks forward to working with both of them to pass his 100 days agenda to help working families,” Biden spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement to the Washington Post.
—from a Salon article saying Hakeem Jeffries has reversed course and now (7/19) supports the Biden/Harris ticket
We NEED to hear that 100 days agenda! It's completely absent from the media I'm seeing, including when Lester Holt asked him, essentially, What are your plans? Joe needs to tell us all his plans. SOMEbody needs to!
Right? Why exactly is Joe Biden running again? “I’m the only one who can beat Trump” is becoming less convincing by the hour. So what’s the plan? If there is one, why haven’t we been told about it? “To finish the job” is also not an acceptable answer, btw.
Though I do believe, Tyler, that he means it, "the job" being to drag us back from Reagan and the economic inequality he stoked. Biden has done a lot to improve economies of red states, financial pressure being the MAGA furnace, and he may believe, as I do, that if he were to relieve the pressure he'd relieve the extremism.
I don’t necessarily disagree with you! I just wish we had a candidate who could be counted on to make that very compelling case. “It’ll take a while to unwind all the damage Republicans have done over the years, and here’s what we’re going to do next…” It just doesn’t seem that hard, and yet it seems beyond Biden.
You raise good points about how unusual the circumstances of the 2020 campaign were, and how neatly they masked Biden’s obvious liabilities. Replay that year without COVID, with a more normal campaign, and one does wonder how Biden would have done. Important to keep in mind when people say he’s the only one who ever beat Trump. …. Also, regarding Biden’s failure to reassure and rally Dems after the debate, I think it’s useful to consider the hypothetical situation of practically any other Democrat having such a performance, and ask if they would have struggled to the degree Biden has in responding to the concerns of his supporters. It’s hard to even imagine any of the other possible presidential contenders coming off as badly as Biden has, certainly not bad enough to prompt the closest thing to a “no confidence” vote we have in the US. And it’s bad enough that it essentially proves that concerns about his ability to campaign effectively are very, very valid. If he can’t persuade his own party, how on earth can he be counted on to persuade voters?
And then there was the brilliant strategic move to NOT run any Democratic ads during the Republic Convention. It made no sense as a response to the attempted assassination of DJT although the Republican merchandising of that sad event was in full swing. And it meant Biden and the D's would appear do nothing — because they WERE doing nothing — to correct the record and call the entire Republican apparatus out on its lies.
The Biden campaign seems to have no strategy to defeat Trump and the down-ballot Republican made-men other than calling Trump an authoritarian (true but obvious), promising to "restore Roe" (which given the occupation of the Supreme Court by Leo's Federalist Society is a pipe dream), and hoping that the prosecution of the former President will cause his supporters to abandon him (which as Milwaukee demonstrated isn't going to happen). Project 2025 could and should be mined for use in effective TV ads and sound-bites in a well constructed and coordinated anti-Republican strategy. But where were those ads during the Republican Convention?
Yes, Biden is just a bad presidential candidate, running a bad, uninspired campaign. It’s wild to me that the folks who want those of us who feel he should step aside to just shut up and fall in line never really grapple with Biden’s culpability in all that has transpired. I’ll gladly fall in line the moment Biden shows he’s got a plan to win this thing! But he just hasn’t, I’m sorry. He just hasn’t, and that suggests to me that he flat out doesn’t have a plan. If he did, he wouldn’t be in this mess of his own creation.
Exactly. I've been waiting since June 27 (for over a year if truth be told) for any evidence that anyone in Biden's campaign (or the Democratic party for that matter) has a strategy. "Faith, hope and charity" are virtues ... not a strategy.
Man, I know the “get over it and fall in line” people are acting in good faith and want to beat Trump as much as I do, but it’s so tiresome to be told that our job is to prop Joe Biden up when he can literally barely stand himself.
To be fair, “hide our candidate’s increasingly unreliable cognitive and speaking abilities and hope everyone still hates the other guy enough to vote against him” IS a strategy of a sort. It’s just apparent that there was no plan B in case plan A fell through.
Biden probably sees Harris as losing Pa. Wisc. Mich. - white guy states. And so losing the prize. I believe that the party would be energized. Maybe millions more votes in total - from blue and purple states. Clinton beat Trump by 3 million votes, total. Just not the right votes. I agree that Biden must stand aside. Please send out a plan for winning the white guy states with Harris.
An idea: Harris should emphasize that it is not only she who should get your vote She represents an entire party and has that behind her. A sane party. The only sane party.
I'm middle-class, recently retired. I've typically donated maybe $1,000 across various races in presidential-voting years. At this point I'm so invested in "It's got to be someone other than Biden" that I realize I'll hate myself if I don't max out on a contribution to whoever that ends up being, just as soon as we know who (s)he is. I wouldn't be surprised if there are many thousands of us in this position.
I’m in this boat as well.
If Biden were "freed" of all the bullshit of the party wringing its hands and wetting the bed, would he be more comfortable saying out loud all the stuff the Dems are too polite to crow about? Just asking: my heart is breaking. I am super angry how Biden is being pushed without a meaningful plan. Playing int GOP, Russia, China etc...feeling like a few privileged Dems don't trust us working so very hard as a strong grassroots effort and that we just don't count. 🖕
We don't yet have a meaningful post-Biden plan, but isn't it reasonable to think that Pelosi, et.al., are considering and discussing the options as part of whatever discussions they're having with Biden's camp and that should/when Biden steps aside, the proposed plan will be a part and parcel of that announcement? At this late stage, Kamala Harris is really the only reasonable alternative, for a number of reasons. We're not going to construct a dream ticket at this point. As I see it, we just need a candidate who is not showing signs of age-related illness 24/7, to give us at least a chance of waging a competitive campaign.
Thanks for your reply. I think we should stay the course with Biden Harris ticket. Rules of succession apply if necessary. Playing into wrong playbook by switching horses now. Biden best president ever.
Have you looked at any of the recent polling, or are you not factoring that into your opinion on whether Biden should stay in the race?
Polls - including Nate silver- have not been accurate since before 2016 election.
They're imperfect, and their quality varies, but they're not all inaccurate. If a poll is well-conducted and repeated consistently over a period of time, and its results are consistent or they trend in one direction over that time, chances are very good that it is telling us something meaningful about public opinion. And, FWIW, in 2020 and 2016 the polls underestimated Trump's support and overestimated Democratic support. Which means that if the polls are saying Trump is leading, it's likely he's leading by more than the polls indicate. Polls are the best indicator we have of what the public is thinking at a given point in time. We ignore them at our peril.
Have you been around older people? I’m nearly 66, so seen this happen over and over. Someone is sharp, energetic, with it…until they aren’t. People go downhill gradually, then all at once. It’s sad when it’s your parents, but it’s terrifying when it’s 1) your president and 2) the firewall between democracy and fascism.
I am 67. 68 in December.
Biden continues to do his job. He remains the best president ever. Rules of succession apply should he be unable to perform his job: just like any other president. Do you have a plan to replace him with a viable winning ticket? Dems need to get behind their candidate: Joe Biden and ensure Dems win presidency, Senate and House.
“Ensure”? Just how do you ensure that? Presto-change-o, zippety-doo-da, nuthin’ up my sleeve? Have you talked to any 20 or 30-somethings lately? Many of my friends are old school Dems who are loyal to Biden no matter what, and I can’t for the life of me figure out what you’re all thinking.
By voting and encouraging loved ones, friends, acquaintances and strangers to vote. Participate in grassroots efforts to get out the vote including postcarding, letter writing, texting, canvassing and phone banking. We can make a difference to ensure Dems win from president through all offices, federal, state and local
Agreed.
https://ki6mnk.substack.com/p/pogo
I'm not sure what the best way to proceed is, but I continue to think the "replace Biden" people seriously underestimate how ugly and difficult it would be to swap in a new candidate, especially a non-Harris candidate. Just one example among many: I think replacing Biden would generate bad faith litigation that, with a functioning judiciary, should be no obstacle but, given the judiciary we have, could quite plausibly hand the presidency to Trump.
Did folks see AOC's thoughts on this?
See here: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9l41vgOAGj/
Summarized in this thread: https://bsky.app/profile/mosheroperandi.bsky.social/post/3kxmemovifa2j
Among other things, I find it notable that non-Harris candidates apparently remain in play, not to mention that no one appears to actually have a plan.
FWIW, I've never particularly liked Harris, but I don't know how you could go with anyone else as a replacement candidate. The optics of big money Dem donors handpicking a candidate contrary to the votes of millions of primary voters are really bad, and, while I can think of some defenses to that line of attack, none of them are really any good.
I agree completely. The only realistic alternative now is Harris, for a ton of reasons. Another thing about the litigation risk to consider is that Biden isn't the nominee yet. He's the presumptive nominee - he hasn't yet been formally nominated by the Party. I don't think any ballots have been prepared yet. So legally, I don't think this would actually be a "swap" (of Harris for Biden). I have to think any GOP lawsuits are meritless and possibly frivolous, but I have not researched that or anything. The DNC has election attorneys and I'm sure they've been consulted. The GOP also desperately wants Biden to stay in the race, so naturally they're going to threaten lawsuits and do whatever else they can to ensure that he stays in the race.
The merits of litigation over replacing Biden are mostly beside the point; the real issue is the will to exercise power of the GOP-captured courts.
That's true - They could find one MAGA judge who agrees with them. But if that happens, we then appeal it to the state appellate level, where there will be a panel of judges (at least 3) that will hear that appeal. And if we lose there the state Supreme Court comes next. The higher up you go the less likelihood of some renegade MAGA judge prevailing. So I think this all has to be factored in, but end of day if we are as nearly certain as can be that Biden can't win (which I am), we have to take the risk.
I fully expect lawsuits would be filed in federal court (probably Texas), and then it would go to a federal appeals court and then scotus. Zero chance this get decided in state court.
I recall the lawsuits over the 2000 election recount in Florida started in state court, then went up to the Florida Supreme Court and then finally to SCOTUS (which reversed the Florida Supreme Court on utterly bogus grounds, but that's another story). Each state has its own body of election law, so I think any action by the GOP would begin in a state court and would need to go through the state appellate process before getting to federal court. But in any event, it just seems to me that if we decide to stick with a hobbled, ineffective candidate with little chance of winning in November because GOP courts might screw us even though the law is on our side, then we have basically already surrendered the war we're purporting to fight in this election.
Then the SCOTUS could just take it up and put off deciding it for 3-4 months by which time it won't matter anymore.
It would be an incredibly bitter process, just go look at any of the Democratic blogs. People are incredibly angry at the attempt to replace Biden already - I have heard of no plans to make people feel any better about taking away their primary vote and with replacing Biden with someone the doners prefer. I have seen no polling that shows me anyone doing better than him other than Michelle Obama. Then there is the money - other than Harris no-one else can touch the campaign donations. I hear no plan from you other than Biden is replaced - kumbaya breaks out. I guarantee you there will be no kumbaya - there will be a bitter inter-democratic fight that must be managed. If Harris is passed over the fight will be twice as bad. The only way this works if Biden retires the presidency and full time campaigns for Harris. I will support the democratic nominee whoever it is - but your ideas are poorly fleshed out and do not take into consideration those who do not agree with you
I've been aware of this all along and I've noted how almost nobody in public is factoring it into the discussion. As I understand it though (based solely on what I think I heard Rachel Bitecofer say), legally Harris becoming the nominee poses the least risk overall, and that any lawsuits are losers on the merits, so assuming a functioning judiciary, they should just be nuisance suits. I have to think Pelosi, Schumer, et.al., have considered and assessed this risk, at least preliminarily. But at the end of the day, really, what chance do we have with Biden atop the ticket? I mean, let's stop kidding ourselves: he probably is now showing early signs of dementia. He's going to get worse. He's obviously losing this race right now. How can he come back?
I think it’s a terrible mistake to assume Pelosi and Schumer are either taking into account all the relevant considerations or that they are weighing them appropriately. Their political instincts over the last 8 years have been disastrous.
I think Biden is showing signs of aging, not dementia.
I also think Biden is not doomed to lose, at least no more so than any replacement, none of whom have yet been fully scrutinized by the media or the GOP.
Hasn't Harris been scrutinized pretty heavily? As the VP pick 4 years ago, I'm sure they did a deep dive. Maybe not as deep as for a presidential candidate, but still.
How have their political instincts been disastrous? I ask genuinely out of curiosity - I'm not a fan of either particularly.
I would think that they haven't taken into consideration *all* relevant considerations or weighed them appropriately - they're human beings prone to error like all of us, and they're in a completely unprecedented situation, working with no time to spare. I just think they probably have not ignored the question of whether what they're doing is legal.
End of the day, Biden and his family and team, for all they accomplished, have now left the party and us with a huge, stinking, fetid pile of shit. They fucked up first by deciding to run for re-election, contrary to clear polling data indicating most voters thought he was too old for another term, and contrary to his 2020 promise (never stated explicitly but very heavily implied) to serve only one term given his age. Then as he declined noticeably, they actively hid his condition from the public and said things privately about it that we now know couldn't have been true. Then they asked for this early debate (that was going to change the race, show the nation how spry Joe was and vault him into an insurmountable lead), negotiated rules that heavily favored Trump and then made pathetic excuses after he bungled it too badly for mere words to describe. Then they retreated to Camp David for a weekend of soul searching and reached the brilliant decision to hopelessly fight for the nomination for another month while Rome burned. Honestly, they've already trashed Biden's legacy completely, but I'm just ranting.....
We're having this exchange in the comments of an essay by Brian Beutler, who has been beating the "Dem leadership is making bad strategic decisions" drum for many years. An example: Dem officials' reluctance to fully confront Trump and his enablers both during and after his presidency has been a colossal blunder.
Right - Brian has criticized Dems in Congress for fighting Trump too passively - for being unwilling to impeach Trump sooner, for not going all out to get his tax returns. Those seem to me more like matters of tactical competence and will rather than political instinct. I'm splitting hairs a bit, but by "political instinct" I thought you meant their ability to accurately gauge public opinion or predict how things are likely to go in the next election cycle. I though maybe there were some specific failures in that regard that I didn't know about...
There is a Reuters story from a day or two ago in which they interviewed some Republican former FEC member who speculated about Republican litigation to prevent the transfer of the Biden Harris war chest to a new candidate. He even thought it might be a plausible lawsuit if the money is transferred before the Democratic national convention. You can bet that the RNC already has Republican shysters working on a complaint and trying to figure out which District Court they should file in to have the greatest chance of getting a Trump judge.
I think everybody needs to adjust their expectations of a replacement nominee at this point in time. We're not going to get a dream ticket of Whitmer/Whoever. It will be Harris/Whoever. And that by itself is indeed fraught with risk, some known, some unknown. It's not going to guarantee victory; it might only lift our chance of winning slightly. But given all we know right now, it's the least risky way to go. Because if nominating Biden in his current state doesn't guarantee losing in November, what does?
Biden’s many years of public service are admirable . His presidency began repairing the damage of MAGATs, and I respect his experience and wisdom. He surrounds himself with smart, committed, courageous civil servants who believe, as I do, that America’s strength is in its diversity, as well as its social and intellectual progress. Age is an undeniable factor in the coming years as those who support our democracy prepare to fend off authoritarian autocracy. President Biden is a powerful weapon in this confrontation, but in a role as senior advisor. Turning the reins over to someone with undeniable vigor, intellect and commitment to democracy is a statesman’s move. It doesn’t matter which one of the many competent Democrats leads the party, I’m all in, and my vote is for those who wish to maintain and further the small d democratic ideals that the United States represents.
Microsoft has PROVED that 60% of all cyber attacks into the U.S. come from Russia. This includes: food and supplies, elections and polls, banks and finance, medical and hospitals, airlines, and on and on. Russians have tainted our election polls FOR ONE PURPOSE - to help Donald Trump win. Russians know that Americans believe the polls - but what if the polls are providing tainted research and incorrect numbers? The entire movement to get Biden to step down is based on this incorrect information. Today’s global cyber attack on airlines, banks, and other businesses is an attack on Microsoft software and has hit Germany, Australia, the U.K. and the United States - all democratic countries.
“On November 9, 2016, just a few minutes after Donald Trump was elected president of the United States, a man named Vyacheslav Nikonov approached a microphone in the Russian State Duma (their equivalent of the US House of Representatives) and made a very unusual statement. ‘Dear friends, respected colleagues!” Nikonov said. “Three minutes ago, Hillary Clinton admitted her defeat in US presidential elections, and a second ago Trump started his speech as the elected president of the United States of America, and I congratulate YOU on this’.” (Journalist Craig Unger talks about Russia, Trump, and “one of the greatest intelligence operations in history.” VOX Politics, by Sean Illing, January 12, 2019.)
When Nikonov congratulated the Russian DUMA for Trump’s win of the U.S. presidency, the Russians were celebrating “one of the greatest intelligence and clandestine operations in modern history.” The Russian KGB had trapped, skillfully developed, and maneuvered a Russian “asset” into the highest political position in the United States - President Donald Trump.” (Unger)
If Joe Biden steps down now - in the last stage of this election process - it will only help Donald Trump win. Help convince Biden to stay in the election.
Elizabeth
From Democracy to Democrazy
www.democrazy2020.org
Are you arguing that Harris is a Russian asset? WTF? Why would only Biden defend us from the EEEEEEVIL Russians? This is so desperate lol
Russians and Trumpists are pushing that it is "anti-democratic" for us to not go with the results of the primaries -- primaries which were as meaningful as a Russian election, in having only one real candidate. The serious contenders were dissuaded from running. This also ignores what Josh Marshall has observed -- that in his April 26 interview with Howard Stern, Biden was fully his old self; he's steeply declined since. The primary votes were for who he's been, not who Biden is now.
Elizabeth Graham
From Democracy to Democrazy
Biden has the experience and the wisdom that is learned over 50 years in public service, and Harris - whom I think is great - is there as backup if and when needed. I am not surprised that Stern would say that Biden has "steeply declined." NOT TRUE.
I spent twenty years living and working in six dictator-led countries. I became bi-cultural over these years. This provides me a "little" insight into the Trump-Russian connection since I was there when Trump was. The Russians understand that our voters are swayed by poll statistics - a lesson learned from the 2020 election. This information provides everyone from government officials, pundits, broadcasters and newspaper reporters, to ordinary citizens vital information that they accept as factual. This is especially true during elections. Well what do you think happens when the polls are reporting tainted numbers - not researched and factual.
information?
The Russians just did a massive cyber attack on airlines, banking, broadcasting, and other businesses - all running on Microsoft software - and in a large group of democratic countries: U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Australia, Canada, etc. It is Microsoft who has the USG contract to fight Russia's cyber attacks.
Thanks, Elizabeth
Elizabeth, That wasn't a Russian cyber attack. That was a bug in an update to CrowdStrike's antivirus product for Windows.
If you watched the Trump-Biden debate, and Biden's interviews since, and thought you were seeing the old Biden -- even of 6 months ago -- I'd like to borrow your rose-colored glasses. As for wisdom, it was not wise for Biden to claim that only he can do it, as he has several times recently. The wise Biden was the one who said half a year back that the Democratic Party has many others who can serve as well as him.
“The serious contenders were dissuaded from running.” How? Who? Show your work.
Okay, when "the president was asked ... whether he believed any other Democrats could prevail over Mr. Trump.
"'Probably 50 of them,' Mr. Biden said. 'I’m not the only one who could defeat him. But I will defeat him.'" (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/us/politics/biden-trump-democrats-election.html). So there were 50 serious contenders, by Biden's count.
Now, assuming Dean Phillips was not on Biden's list of 50, all of those on the list were dissuaded, by some combination of advice from others and their own reckoning.
Is this AI
Huh? Not sure which "this" you mean. Trump's campaign director was quoted making the argument that being "democratic" requires Democrats to stick with Biden as primary winner just last night. As for whether Russia's troll farms are using AI, that's something I haven't seen reported on. They've got plenty of people sitting at desks, not sure they need AI amplification.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-campaign-playbook-atta-democrats-for-their-coup-against-joe-biden
Oh no I thought you were AI, because the previous message was seemingly written in response to an argument I didn't make
I was supporting your argument with one adjacent to it. Do you expect all responses to be disagreements?
No I am not arguing that Harris is a Russian asset - that's a bit far fetched even for me. Ha ha. Biden has the experience and the wisdom that is learned over 50 years in public service, and Harris - whom I think is great - is there as backup if and when needed. Biden has already become the elected ballot candidate unanimously across our country. Let's not try at the last minute change the ticket. Elizabeth
Right you aren't arguing it just implying it. One of the most unhinged posts I've ever read btw so good job there. Biden is a senile cryptkeeper who can't go the distance and will lose in November. If you value democracy more than an old man's ego you want him to get out ASAP
So reviewing the news today I would say the source of the limbo the Democratic Party seems to be roughly twofold. One is that Joe Biden himself is not convinced he should drop out. The other is that around him a war is raging over whether Kamala Harris would be the logical next nominee. I think the reason so many progressive caucus members have suddenly become Biden supporters is that they actually want Harris (as, I should say, do I). They think, however, that powerful forces within the party and among donors don't. So on the one hand, I'm not sure how many people really are convinced Biden can win, other than Biden himself. I think you have a lot of people who are "riding with Biden" to prevent Harris from being passed over, not so much because they think Biden can win. The one thing I don't know but obviously is a huge factor is what Biden thinks of Harris. I do believe Joe Biden is a wonderful and good human being, and draw some comfort from the idea that if he can be brought to think clearly about the matter, he will make at least a moral decision (I'm not talking about a 'college try': for me, any decision in which the #1 priority isn't beating Donald Trump is immoral).
I think Biden is doing ok except for the one debate - he does look old, but he's looked old for a while - he's had an incredibly successful presidency - far more successful than Obama or Clinton and is finally moving the US away from neoliberalism. I think the least risky move is to stick with him and show Kamala Harris doing presidential things in case she needs to replace him.
Totally agree. I just wrote something along similar lines, but with an emphasis on another aspect here that I think is interesting. Biden's awful-to-lackluster performances may not have been enough on their own to trigger a sufficient response from Democrats for him to step aside. If he does, we may have Trump's recent string of good luck to thank as well. The schadenfreude if Democrats are able to upend Republicans' confidence and momentum will be delicious. Biden had better man up and step down. I respect him and the job he has done, but if he stays in and Trump gets his landslide, the damage will likely be even greater than had he failed in 2020.
https://dearpartisan.substack.com/p/weeks-where-decades-happen
I tremendously respect your reasoning, your logic, and your thoughtfulness
Great post
He should resign the Presidency and let President Harris run for reelection.
“Any new ticket, consisting of any of the younger stars whose names get batted around most frequently, would enjoy something like the mass commitment Obama enjoyed in 2008 and 2012.” Really? The certainty here is something else.
And I’d like Harris, but I think some of our swing state swing voter brethren are irredeemably racist and sexist. Sue me. That’s what I think. Joe is a little more behind than I’d like in I guess a lot of polls, and in somewhat better shape in others, running against an obviously demented freak. I think the likelihood he can pull this out matches the likelihood of any other scenario anyone has dreamed up. (I mean, less and less as the bloodletting continues but…) Yes he could do more sunsetty things in the next few months. But GOP lawyers could also ratfuck any alternative plan we come up with too. It’s a hard problem. But saying things like the above with certainty seems… odd.
“The president told both leaders he is the nominee of the party. He plans to win, and looks forward to working with both of them to pass his 100 days agenda to help working families,” Biden spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement to the Washington Post.
—from a Salon article saying Hakeem Jeffries has reversed course and now (7/19) supports the Biden/Harris ticket
We NEED to hear that 100 days agenda! It's completely absent from the media I'm seeing, including when Lester Holt asked him, essentially, What are your plans? Joe needs to tell us all his plans. SOMEbody needs to!
Right? Why exactly is Joe Biden running again? “I’m the only one who can beat Trump” is becoming less convincing by the hour. So what’s the plan? If there is one, why haven’t we been told about it? “To finish the job” is also not an acceptable answer, btw.
Though I do believe, Tyler, that he means it, "the job" being to drag us back from Reagan and the economic inequality he stoked. Biden has done a lot to improve economies of red states, financial pressure being the MAGA furnace, and he may believe, as I do, that if he were to relieve the pressure he'd relieve the extremism.
I don’t necessarily disagree with you! I just wish we had a candidate who could be counted on to make that very compelling case. “It’ll take a while to unwind all the damage Republicans have done over the years, and here’s what we’re going to do next…” It just doesn’t seem that hard, and yet it seems beyond Biden.
You raise good points about how unusual the circumstances of the 2020 campaign were, and how neatly they masked Biden’s obvious liabilities. Replay that year without COVID, with a more normal campaign, and one does wonder how Biden would have done. Important to keep in mind when people say he’s the only one who ever beat Trump. …. Also, regarding Biden’s failure to reassure and rally Dems after the debate, I think it’s useful to consider the hypothetical situation of practically any other Democrat having such a performance, and ask if they would have struggled to the degree Biden has in responding to the concerns of his supporters. It’s hard to even imagine any of the other possible presidential contenders coming off as badly as Biden has, certainly not bad enough to prompt the closest thing to a “no confidence” vote we have in the US. And it’s bad enough that it essentially proves that concerns about his ability to campaign effectively are very, very valid. If he can’t persuade his own party, how on earth can he be counted on to persuade voters?
And then there was the brilliant strategic move to NOT run any Democratic ads during the Republic Convention. It made no sense as a response to the attempted assassination of DJT although the Republican merchandising of that sad event was in full swing. And it meant Biden and the D's would appear do nothing — because they WERE doing nothing — to correct the record and call the entire Republican apparatus out on its lies.
The Biden campaign seems to have no strategy to defeat Trump and the down-ballot Republican made-men other than calling Trump an authoritarian (true but obvious), promising to "restore Roe" (which given the occupation of the Supreme Court by Leo's Federalist Society is a pipe dream), and hoping that the prosecution of the former President will cause his supporters to abandon him (which as Milwaukee demonstrated isn't going to happen). Project 2025 could and should be mined for use in effective TV ads and sound-bites in a well constructed and coordinated anti-Republican strategy. But where were those ads during the Republican Convention?
Yes, Biden is just a bad presidential candidate, running a bad, uninspired campaign. It’s wild to me that the folks who want those of us who feel he should step aside to just shut up and fall in line never really grapple with Biden’s culpability in all that has transpired. I’ll gladly fall in line the moment Biden shows he’s got a plan to win this thing! But he just hasn’t, I’m sorry. He just hasn’t, and that suggests to me that he flat out doesn’t have a plan. If he did, he wouldn’t be in this mess of his own creation.
Exactly. I've been waiting since June 27 (for over a year if truth be told) for any evidence that anyone in Biden's campaign (or the Democratic party for that matter) has a strategy. "Faith, hope and charity" are virtues ... not a strategy.
Man, I know the “get over it and fall in line” people are acting in good faith and want to beat Trump as much as I do, but it’s so tiresome to be told that our job is to prop Joe Biden up when he can literally barely stand himself.
To be fair, “hide our candidate’s increasingly unreliable cognitive and speaking abilities and hope everyone still hates the other guy enough to vote against him” IS a strategy of a sort. It’s just apparent that there was no plan B in case plan A fell through.
A Harris/Ryan ticket would be dynamite. We would easily win with that strong and young team. Time to move forward to victory.
Biden probably sees Harris as losing Pa. Wisc. Mich. - white guy states. And so losing the prize. I believe that the party would be energized. Maybe millions more votes in total - from blue and purple states. Clinton beat Trump by 3 million votes, total. Just not the right votes. I agree that Biden must stand aside. Please send out a plan for winning the white guy states with Harris.
An idea: Harris should emphasize that it is not only she who should get your vote She represents an entire party and has that behind her. A sane party. The only sane party.