They're Really Going For It
Trump's plan to overturn the midterm elections comes into focus.
There’s no contradiction between Donald Trump’s deepening unpopularity—and his evident commitment to further unpopular conduct—and his intensifying assault on democracy and the rule of law.
When democratic politicians become unpopular, they try to understand why, then they try to mend things. They know it’s important, existential in some cases, to regain their lost support, in part or in whole. People like Trump, on the other hand—fiends and enemies of democracy—merely see greater urgency to steal power.
The bulwark against this, the reason most liberals don’t seem concomitantly alarmed and outraged, is public opinion itself. A panic-driven consolidation of power is unlikely to be popular. The more aggressive it is, the greater the backlash, like a Chinese finger trap…for freedom!
Through contempt for fair play, and judicial corruption, Republicans have stolen perhaps 10 House seats already, before a single general-election ballot has been cast. But the public is in growing revolt against MAGA rule, leaving Democrats heavily favored to win the House, at least by the numbers and rules. And since this isn’t a presidential election—in which case Trump would only care about his own race—he and his loyalists are up against the fact that there are 435 House elections every cycle, and control of the chamber turns on scores of elections, not just one. The tipping point seat will be some district Trump won by a very small margin. Democrats are poised to win anywhere from a handful to a couple dozen seats beyond that one. Stealing a midterm requires overturning all of those elections one way or another.
Then on top of the logistics, we know from painful experience that Trump isn’t one for plausible deniability. He defaults to out-and-out fraud, making calls on speakerphone to various state officials, and asking them to nullify ballots or stuff ballot boxes enough to flip outcomes. In the past, they have proven reluctant.
So in that sense it’s reasonable to see Democrats pick themselves up off the ground, lick their wounds, and double down on electoralism. It’s also good in that fear without a plan breeds panic and reveals weakness. Resolving to win is absolutely wiser than free-floating doomerism. “He’s all powerful and going to steal it from us! Ahhh!” This is not an appeal of any kind. If anything it just discourages civic participation.
But Trump is clearly going to try, and it is at least something of a problem that Democrats don’t seem to know how to respond beyond trying to run up the score at the ballot box.
Let’s start with the elements of the scheme that we can already see clearly.
Trump’s first major official act in term two was to pardon all January 6 rioters, whether they were under indictment, on trial, convicted, or roaming free.
Then on Monday, with the complicity of the Justice and Treasury Departments, Trump stole almost $1.8 billion from taxpayers to create a slush fund nominally designed to pay off pardoned January 6 insurrectionists—but which Trump will control entirely, without oversight.
Trump ordered Republicans across the country to rig their House maps mid-Census.
When Democrats responded by redrawing their own maps just as aggressively, Republican judges on the U.S. Supreme Court, plus the Supreme Courts of Texas, Virginia, and (soon, it seems) Florida stepped into the fray, allowing Republican gerrymanders to take effect, while throwing out Democratic counter gerrymanders.
Trump’s Justice Department has sued the Washington, DC, bar for having the temerity to consider disciplinary action against Jeffrey Clark, a participant in the 2020 coup attempt.
Trump threatened to harm the state of Colorado by illegal means, unless its governor, Jared Polis, sprung the 2020 insurrectionist Tina Peters from prison. (Polis complied.)
Trump issued an executive order claiming power over mail ballots—specifically, the order requires the Social Security Administration and Department of Homeland Security to create an unverified list of eligible voters, and prohibits the Post Office from sending mail ballots to anyone not on the list.
A DOJ lawyer told a federal judge that the government has taken no concrete steps to implement this executive order, but he appears to have lied: According to NOTUS, officials from the White House, DHS, DOJ, and the Postal Service—including a notorious election denier named Heather Honey—have met regularly in recent weeks to discuss implementing the order and defending it in court.
Most liberals believe the nightmare scenario involves federal jackboots surrounding swing-district polling places and scaring off enough nonwhite citizens to flip results. And there is surely some risk there. If control of the House comes down to, say, 10 races, and Trump thinks he can tamper with two or three by sending ICE agents in droves to Long Island and Pennsylvania, why wouldn’t he give it a shot?
But the bigger picture is more methodical:
If you are an insurrectionist, or insurrection curious, you know Trump will pardon you of your federal crimes.
You also know he will abuse his power to help you if you get in trouble at the state level.
If that’s not enough to make you overcome your misgivings, he can offer you money from his slush fund.
That right there is enough incentive for a bunch of miniature January 6-style riots at swing-district polling places or counting centers. But it gets worse.