51 Comments

I have no intention of watching or reading about the inauguration. He is an illegitimate candidate backed by corrupt judges, the SCOTUS 6 and little miss Loose Cannon.

History will not be kind and I will not recognize this puppet government.i can only hope we get through the next four years in tact and there will be another election. There’s no guarantee there will be.

People had to Google oligarchy? No wonder Harris lost.

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What you probably exposed without realizing it here is the real reason Democrats fail to exploit the power given to them; weak leadership. Schumer is especially weak, he frequently got outplayed by the minority in the Senate. Pelosi refusing to hand over the reigns to younger, more capable, Democrats will continue to enable the autocratic rise.

At the end of the day it's best to remind ourselves that Trump says things, most of them are meant to incite reaction. Don't react, the attention from reacting to the things he says is what drives and sustains him. Instead, we should ignore what he says and focus on what he and his cabinet actually does.

Actions speak louder than words. For a narcissist, their words are their foil and they are where they hide from their deeds.

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I agree with your take on Schumer- his fellow Democratic Senators might like him for a leader, but I don't think he's very good at it. He did nothing when McConnell refused to give President Obama's SCOTUS nominee Merrick Garland, a hearing or vote in the Senate.

But I'll nit pick on Nancy Pelosi- She will go down in history as one of the most effective House Speakers we've ever had. She held the caucus together with smaller margins that Johnson or McCarthy had. And in fact she HAS stepped down and turned over leadership to a younger, talented Democrat- Hakeem Jeffries. If your comment was based on the recent failure of AOC to secure the seat for ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, I think that has more to do with internal Democratic caucus politics than Nancy Pelosi big-footing AOC's run at the seat. And Jerry Connolly who got that seat is no Joe Manchin Democrat- he has progressive bona fides and a very good track record in his long political career. Yeah, he's old- that doesn't mean he shouldn't have the seat.

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Pelosi will no doubt go down as one of the most effective House Speakers we've had, but like Biden or any aging athlete who refuses to walk away when it's time, she's held on to power far too long. The AOC submarining is ample evidence that, while she may no longer be the Speaker in title, she is still the shadow speaker for the Democratic party. A Democratic party that just got shellacked in the polls for being too old and out touch shouldn't pass over rising talent to continue its gerontocracy. I might add that putting up terminally ill representative is likely to demonstrate even less effectiveness at keeping the autocratic threat at bay.

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If you think Biden should have walked away sooner, I suggest you go to YouTube and watch Laurence O'Donnell's interview with Joe last night. If the rest of the over-educated, under-intelligent, otherwise-unemployable trust fund babies of the DC Press Corpse had asked questions like O'Donnell did, and then acted with a bit of respect to allow an actual answer, like O'Donnell did, the Vichy Democrat coup last summer wouldn't have happened.

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No, I didn't say that Biden should have walked away sooner. But he absolutely should not have run again. His debate performance was all the proof anyone needed. Given that he was extraordinarily unpopular to that point, he never should have been on the stage. His accomplishments are understated and the fruit of many of them will be attributed to Trump. But he bears responsibility for Trump's re-election as much as anyone else. His justice department failed to prosecute the previous administration in a timely manner consistent with the court packing outcomes the Republicans had created. He tried to turn the page on Trump too early, as if had been fully written. He was a great president but age and hubris have colored his accomplishments, they may even lead to the end of democracy.

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I don't think it's obvious why more Dems didn't show up at the polls. Eventually people will talk. Then we'll know.

I won't blame the young, they showed up in the key states.

It's something else. I think it's a gut thing.

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During her second speakership Pelosi had larger margins than both McCarthy and Johnson. Where did you see otherwise?

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I won’t be watching or participating because he so loves his attention and to brag about how many people watch his shit! He’s a disgrace, disgusting human garbage!

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Good article. Anyone who’s talked to voters about the economy know its usually a fig leaf for something else. Few are interested enough to engage with it, even fewer enough to make it their actual deciding voting factor.

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Given that the average American reads and comprehends at a 6th grade level - and that 30% of them can't read and comprehend at a 5th grade level, asking the Confederacy of Dunces that passes for the American Public nowadays to know they should breathe in and breathe out regularly is asking a helluva lot from them.

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It's beyond my control ... I read your opening sentence, Brian, and immediately thought Trumps inaugural address will be as sincere as his oath to uphold the Constitution and faithfully execute the office of the President. So that's two things I know with certainty.

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If there was any justice in the universe, every word of the Oath of Office he turns into a lie as it oozes out of that anus under his nose would light him on fire.

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You are wrong in saying demacrates left high prices. That was corporate greed that caused on going inflation,and demes were blamed by republican liers spreading their corruption

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Because that’s exacting how the gop operates. They do anything to make the other side look bad because they have nothing truly positive to stand on

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There are none so blind as those who will not see. You can't wave away 9% inflation by claiming it doesn't exist -- and if corporate greed was responsible, why did it show up on Biden's watch and not during the much more business-friendly Trump administration?

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Remember Covid? It shut down supply and demand and then when demand came back supply was out of whack. People didn’t care that things were 20% more since they’d been sitting alone in the dark for the last 6 months saving up their dollars.

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"why did it show up on Biden's watch and not during the much more business-friendly Trump administration?"

Because of dead time lag. Look it up. The economy has lags that run from weeks to years depending on the input. Tariffs placed in 2017-2018 and stimulus paid in 2020, are still rippling through the economy. The Chips Act other stuff from the last couple years - especially infrastructure spending - won't help the economy for 2-4 more years.

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Oddly, the rest of the world blames inflation on a combination of lack of supply following the pandemic (chiefly) and in some part, world & shipping disruptions caused by the Ukraine war.

It’s only ever Americans who think it was a domestic problem.

Interestingly too, the rest of the world is in awe of Joe Biden & his ability to lower inflation whilst raising wages, and whilst Americans have it bad, it’s nowhere near the pain that the rest of the world has felt.

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Good points! If you look farther down this thread, I think that we agree.

There are so many factors that can drive inflation. I'm definitely willing to agree with the worldwide supply chain upsets. But here in the the US, some of our supply chain upsets were self inflicted.

As for the recovery here in the US, we definitely pushed out enough stimulus to keep things alive. People only used what they needed and they saved the rest (good). Meanwhile the rest of the world soldiered on without enough grease to keep things moving.

The amusing thing to me is this: so many in the US population are willing to squarely place the blame for their current micro-economic malaise (things are expensive even though they can mostly afford them) on the now outgoing administration, when a more nuanced analysis (as you stated) points to external factors (Ukraine invasion) and the administration running things from 2016 until 2020 (tariffs). And finally, there are problems with housing and rent costs due to changes in our tax code that started decades ago.

The US stimulus definitely got the economy chugging after the pandemic, helping with our employment picture and our economic growth.

To sum up a typical US citizen's sour grapes, if you're sitting in a nice house that you bought with a loan at 3.5% fifteen years ago, and it appreciated a lot, you might be unhappy now because no one will buy it because it is totally unaffordable with a 6.8% loan and its new valuation.

On the other side, if you just received a shiny new raise that definitely kicks you up above the inflation rate (that has happened a lot here in the US) you're not happy because you can't afford a shiny new car or bump in your house because the cost of money has gone back to long term norms. A twisted perspective from having twenty years of 3% money can do that to you!

Sorry got off on a rant there.

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How very, very convenient an explanation. So what Trump did only affected Biden's regime, and what Biden did will only benefit Trump's administration. Very neat. It's called blameshifting, and it is, like most Democratic arguments, a lie. A lie the voter can see through.

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Dead time lag is used to describe delay phenomena in feedback systems. The economy is a feedback system. It has delays. No magic.

The knife cuts both ways.

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I am an electrical engineer. I am well-informed on feedback systems. I know about dead time -- but it seldom works to screw up performance only after a shift change. If Biden knew that Trump's actions were likely to fire up inflation, why did he act to run up fuel prices and throw gas on the fire in the form of the third round of stimulus payments? Answer: either he was an idiot or he didn't realize the consequences of his actions -- which would also be idiotic.

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"If Biden knew that Trump's actions were likely to fire up inflation, why did he act to run up fuel prices and throw gas on the fire in the form of the third round of stimulus payments?"

First off, it's difficult to know if a stimulus will prove to be inflationary. Second, if two-thirds of the stimulus was allocated during the prior administration, then in a linear system, two thirds of the response is due to that stimulus. Is the system linear? Who knows?

Putin invaded Ukraine, upsetting oil and grain markets. I doubt any administration could have talked Putin down. I don't believe hype. Russians view things over the long haul, until they don't. Think Afghanistan in the 1980s.

You work with feedback systems that are generally linear, observable and are mostly time-invariant.

We saw delayed effects to the stimulus because people saved as much of the money as they could. That doesn't mean that it's easy to tie the stimulus to inflation.

The Biden administration also kept some of the tariffs in place. Not the best for inflation. But killing some tariffs was still a good move.

Understanding what a tariff does to a supply chain is tricky. It can cause goods to be routed through third/fourth countries. So what we observe is scarcity, and an attendant price increase in the short term as the pre-tariff inventory is depleted and tariff affected supplies are pushed into the market, then delayed changes in price as the supply chain adjusts. This can take years. Even when the tariff is removed, and some were, the effects linger because of contract obligations.

Interest rate increases cause market anticipation effects, lending effects and all sorts of time-varying time-constants. The velocity of money is not constant at all. Interest rate hikes are also inflationary as they affect the overall cost of capital goods, even if the goods remain at the same price, because of financing costs. The Fed is independent. Blame who you want. I don't care.

Finally, the cost of real estate over the past four or five decades is difficult to understand. Real estate in much of the US has increased in price in excess of the 1-2% per year that has generally held for centuries. One possible influence is the change in the way high earners are compensated. This traces back to the Nixon Administration.

The new administration has inherited an economy where the price of "expensive" goods like rentals, cars, condos, and homes have been able to grow faster than inflation because of two decades of low interest rates. This is a big deal. It will be interesting to see how that is solved without more inflation, the usual asset valuation equalization mechanism.

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thank you, Brian, for this plea for sanity.

I have no idea why so many Dems, including previous firebrand anti-Trumpers like Schiff, are now so muted. I have no idea who they are talking to or what they think they're proving to the American people. as a lifelong Dem I see this go-along-and-get-along as reeking of weakness and cowardice when we need to make every single thing the GOP attempts as difficult as we can. stop what we can, make the rest cost them dearly.

if this bizarre pose originates with the leadership it once again underlines the urgency of uprooting the gerontocracy who have demonstrated their inability to sustain a wartime footing. Pelosi heroically personified resistance during her speakership but herself seems inclined to return to the less confrontational posture Dems somehow think makes them look...I still don't know, how are they trying to look, and to whom?

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Democrats are already bowing to his wishes. There's only a few that are pushing back. They shouldn't attend, they shouldn't shake hands, they shouldn't even bother to acknowledge this is happening.

It's disheartening that none of them want to start fighting dirty. Crockett should have said "c'mon, let's go" to Mace and gotten up and started walking towards the door to fight her.

The senate dems should be doing everything in their power to slow or stop these appointments.

Just DO SOMETHING!!! Goddammit!

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What if we stop reacting to trump, even in this case where you’re mostly suggesting that Dems proactively react to trump? What if, and hear me out here, we look PAST trump? What if we start speculating about who’s next? And what’s next? What if we start painting the picture of what he will wreak rather than describing it and lamenting it after it’s wrought? Republicans never waited for Biden to act before they said what he’d do. And somehow, weirdly, he would often react to their speculation of what he might do. But what if, from Day 1, Dems just resisted the urge to react and instead concentrated on sidelining trump as a has been, even though, for the moment, he still is? But if we pretend he isn’t, maybe eventually he won’t be?

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A few prebuttal ideas:

1. Trump is going to pardon the corrupt NYC mayor in exchange for letting him run made-for-TV immigration raids in the city. When it happens, this will be corrupt and bad!

2. There is a going to be a natural disaster that hits a Republican state in the next four years. When it happens, Dems will not play politics with disaster aid.

3. RFK Jr. is going to cause at least one public health crisis if he is confirmed at HHS. Don't say we didn't warn you!

4. Trump will not be able to get you a girlfriend, or make your grandkids call you more often, or make your boss respect you. So if you voted for him out of this kid of resentment, too bad.

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Good point! The Democrats need someone to deliver a REBUTTAL (Punch Back) to the LIES Trump will tell Monday! Also EVERY person in America who is sick to death of Trump and his Billionaire Oligarchs and their Financial Rape - Takeover of America DO NOT WATCH his coronation! Do something for someone else in honor of MLK and post that! And fly you flags at half staff in honor of Jimmy Carter a decent human being and do NOT raise them for the morally corrupt 78 year old 2 year old and post that. And one more thing over heard yesterday in a grocery store in RED South Dakota. Lady at the checkout line said "I'm Scared". And someone asked her "What are you afraid of?" And she answered "Trump - and I voted for him". Just a painful reminder that Trump does NOT care about the average American and even his supporters are finally NOW starting to see the light! Every one in America needs to rise up and deal with these monsters.............are be prepared to suffer and suffer very badly...............

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However, this man is on the brink of ending a genocide in Israel and the horrific war in Ukraine- something that present administration has not done. I am giving him credit in hopes that he will follow through and make these important steps in moving us away from these horrible wars. I am not a Trump fan but Joe Biden and Kamal Harris were complicit and supportive of thousands of deaths- many of them women and children and this had to end. Pray his ego will drive this to completion.

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Biden's support of Ukraine is good though. Russia invaded Ukraine, not the other way around.

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Go back to sleep

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Tremendous. On point This is Timothy Snyders first thoughts on “The People’s Cabinet’. Brian you should reach out to Tim https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/shadow-cabinet?r=fa5ey&utm_medium=ios

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What’s up with Fetterman? And Bernie saying “Elon Musk is right”? What is up with that? Prioritizing their own interests? I want them flayed for that.

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Sounds like a plan to me!

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Democrats should be forced to get rid of the Earth Shoes they wear to gunfights, the Volvos they drive to get there, and the nice cheeseplates they bring. Also the 90-page policy proposals.

You bring guns to gunfights.

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