I think the biggest drag on Biden is a media which delights in putting him down at every opportunity. For money. For clicks. The NYT coverage has been shameful. Biden screams into a void.
There’s also the under-covered reality of Russian, Chinese, Iranian, etc. mis- and disinformation clogging the Facebook, Instagram, X and other social-media feeds of millions of Americans with all kinds of invented lies and scurrilous stories about Biden and his administration. This, also, must surely be keeping his poll numbers down. Other than publicizing this fact more aggressively, I’m not sure how it can be effectively countered.
If the Iranians are directing their misinformation and disinformation in an anti-Biden, pro-Trump way, they are own-goal'ing the 'eff out of themselves. And I'm not saying this to call Biden any kind of a foreign policy dove - just that he is sane and he considers national and international consequences and long-term consequences beyond the personal and the domestic political. If contributing to a Trump return to power, the Iranians are cracking wide open, as wide as possibly can be, the important, American, permission structure for Israeli preemptive attacks on Iran, its weapons programs, and groups it backs by any and all means, including nuclear, and unlimited Trump administration escalation or retaliation with any and all weapons in the US arsenal against Iran, including nuclear. Imagine the sycophants Trump would put in charge of DoD, NSC, DNI, State, and CJCS - blowhards and nutjobs like Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton (if they could find a replacement), Mike Flynn, etc.
Therefore, I doubt the Iranians are doing a deliberate defeat Biden focused cyber or information strategy.
With China it's more of a toss-up. Trump spoke up against "Jina/Gina/China" plenty, and slapped on tariffs, so they probably don't like that. But they still may rather have Trump in office as an American adversary/competitor than Biden since Biden tries to walk more of the walk on industrial policy revival, Trump is an incompetent mess, seems bribable, and really may not give a crap at all about Taiwan or Chinese territorial muscling in the South China or East China Sea against US allies, just likes to whine about Chinese exports, viruses, and immigrants. So, they may be doing cyber and psywar with an anti-Biden tilt.
Russia, definitely motivated to do it, because they've got a rage "jones" against the American establishment and simply see anything injuring America as a victory for them, and a way to move the needle favorably on Ukraine and NATO with a Trump inauguration 2025.
North Korea, despite not making a honeymoon deal with Donnie last time around, probably prefers him, because he loves to dunk on South Korea.
Or, perhaps the polls that show Biden losing are as wrong as every poll over the last four years. In almost every election since 2020 liberals have won and in many cases won big. In every state, abortion has outperformed the polls by a lot.
Just now Charlie Kirk tweeted "Trump’s one debate term should be to mandate a drug test before Biden takes the stage," which to me says that the MAGA Reich are repeating the same mistakes they made ahead of the debates four years ago, that pattern of trying to correct for underestimating Biden by saying he's on performance-enhancing drugs.
It's easy to get antsy because the stakes are so existential. Just know the other guys are panicking too and Trump's path back to power is just as perilous as Biden's. Even in a fractured media environment a bad night for Trump is going to percolate down to the lowest strata of info.
From Democracy to Democrazy attempts to warn Americans of Trump's relationship to Putin. People across the United States think that Trump's crimes were committed because of his inflated ego and his desire to continue as a big-shot President on the world stage. What if his real crime is treason? What if he was compromised by Putin - which means there are photos, or he was being controlled and bribed because of money owed to Russians? Both Eric and Trump Jr have bragged about the Trump Organization receiving $100 million from Russian banks. (www.businessinsider.com) Russian banks, which are all controlled by the KGB/FSB, give money to foreigners to either laundry black cash into another countries economy, or to trap a foreigner to work with Russia. Trump has been chasing money since he learned to walk, so if Russia is his source he will do and say whatever necessary to receive more funds from them. Trump and his followers talk about "saving America" but the realistic facts and proof show us that they are destroying our country. Proof was seen in the insurrection on January 6th, 2021 and found in Democrazy.
Microsoft has proven that 58% of all cyber attacks into the U.S. come from Russia. They have hacked into our: food and supplies, gas and oil, banks and finance, military and the Pentagon information, cell phone systems, hospitals and health care, and interferred in our elections. This list probably includes our polls which Americans blindly take for granted and believe. Russians know that the polls sway voters. Putin has been shouting at the wind for months that Trump will win the 2024 elections. What does he know that we do not?
Brian, you wrote a piece awhile back that I loved about how sometimes politics isn’t complicated. Ron DeSantis got spanked in the primary because he was visibly, viscerally unappealing to a lot of people, and so his opponents hammered him on his weaknesses, and he lost. I think it’s the same with Biden. You are simply not going to get over 50% of people in the year of our lord 2024 to LOVE a visibly old, mumbly white man with middle-of-the-road politics. Too progressive for conservatives, too conservative for progressives, and not a ton of charisma or passion, which means the only people who love him are centrists, and centrists are not known for inspiring a zealous fervor to vote.
What I think remains to be seen is the level of MAGApathy. I remain pleasantly surprised at how few people turn up to his trials, how sparsely attended his rallies are. Technically you can take a poll without getting off the couch or committing to anything. I’m not convinced MAGA are as fired up as the Democratic base (and for all my bitching, I’m pretty fired up). With (presumably) a guilty verdict and month after month of Trump rambling about toilets, I think this election is going to be decided based on which side is more apathetic toward the fate of the country. I’m not convinced MAGA is actually worried about the fate of the country; I think they like The Trump Show, and their favorite show is getting kind of slow and awkward and embarrassing.
I’ve read that after Alsobrook’s opponent let a racial slur slip (in March) that lead started getting smaller and it was pretty even in the final week.
In your penultimate three paragraphs you arrive at a great synthesis of actions that need to be taken. Those and the title of your article today, make the pivot from critique to action that can still be taken.
I got something this AM from in front of their paywall to consider from FWIW about "the Groups" optimizing their Social Media tactics. Beyond the White House and campaign, as I got at in a comment over the last week or so, the progressive interest groups need to freakin' wake up, modernize, not count on yesterday's Social Media, and get the heck on TikTok!
I am also heartened to hear that you are involved in an engaged, respectful dialogue, with Simon Rosenberg. I'm on Hopium Chronicles too. Is Simon accurately weighing and excluding certain poles as GOP partisan generated noise? Is he expecting the POTUS election electorate to resemble the off-year and special election electorates too much?- who knows? But he projects a more useful attitude and set of accompanying actions and style of online behavior than many more doomer-y folk, even if the doomer-y are more accurately forecasting, in agreement with the contempory and longstanding polling averages.
I have another thought to offer: Democrats and supporters of Democrats are leaving the field of getting into Republicans' heads and shining a light on their coalition fissures a bit too fallow. And even if you can't get the MSM political reporters to talk about substantive policy, talking about factional and ideological rifts and "who dislikes/distrusts who" is like catnip for those for those people to write on. Amplify stories like that, and its like throwing a t-bone steak at a guard dog.
Particular things to play up, and keep the conversation going on are: The continued 20% Haley vote in the primaries and its hypothetical worst-case mathematical consequences for Trump in the general in swing states, under stay home or switch or write-in scenarios.
More importantly, Trump does not just have GOP critics coming at him from common-sense, pro-democracy, pro-Constitution, or national security points of view like Liz Cheney, Adam Kinziger, or Mitt Romney, he also has critics in the religious right movement who have written and said they feel betrayed by Trump's comments on personally only favoring limited week bans on abortion and only on a state by state basis. And Ann Coulter of the conservative media sphere has repeatedly said she doesn't trust Trump to deliver on immigration control or the border wall. Amplify *those* voices to amplify the sense of distrust and futility of politics. It's called "ratfucking" but it can done simply by referring to quotes to reporters when the opportunity strikes, without even fabricating anything.
A follow-on to my comment here, specifically about the damage the Israel-Gaza war, and the protests in response, are doing to the Biden coalition and his ultimate potential vote totals:
1. Clearly the fact of it happening and going on so long brings up rifts between young and old, centrist and progressive, white and non-white in the Dem coalition, while Republicans, even if rank-and-file are not monolithically enthused about the Israeli side, are comfortable at the elite and activist engaged level to just go whole hog and constantly overbid with a pro-Israeli stance, so they love the conflict, they love that Democrats hate, and they love attention being put to it.
2. Getting to a cease-fire ASAP would be the best thing morally, objectively, and for Biden and the Dem campaigns politically
3. It would not be the best thing for Netanyahu politically, because that broadly pushes against the likelihood of it happening, or him moving good faith in that direction. And, it would not be a good thing really for pretty much any members of his coalition as currently constituted, because they face probable worse prospects in an election. And only a break-up, defection, not external protest, would force Israeli elections.
4. Additionally, Netanyahu, given his side-taking with the Republicans in the 21st century, and possibly to a degree since the 1990s, *wants* Trump to win, to get wider latitude, and he understands factors 1, 2, and 3.
5. Indeed, the *only* internal restraint/disincentive/deterrent he has on further escalation of violence on Palestinians or especially widening of the fighting w/ Hezbollah, other Iranian proxies and Hezbollah, is a) Israel Jewish public distaste for being under heavy rocket fire that compels them to move from their homes and interrupt their lives to be in shelters [and Hezbollah can produce the most of that], and b) Intensified military manpower needs that would compel reconsideration of, or exceptions to, the draft exemptions of the yeshiva students who are constituents of the ultra-religious parties in his coalition, or in the absence of that, an even more grossly disproportionate mobilization, service and casualty burden on more secular Israelis tilted so much that the less religious, more secular rightist parties in his coalition balk. [again, ground conflict with Hezbollah would impose the greatest strain of this type].
6. The protests on elite and large American university campuses focus a great deal of attention via all media outlets, opposition to Biden/US support to Israel, and since the GOP has no executive responsibilities now, it hurts them not a bit, they can play both ends.
7. Aside from the middling poor prospects of getting a ceasefire, a hopeful impending development is that we are here on May 17th, and the college school year is nearly over. The place for protest will *soon be depopulated*. Students and faculty will have their summer plans to attend to.
8. Despite this, if conditions and rews reporting from the region remain as they are, protests like these will certainly be planned for the Chicago Democratic Convention in July I think. So there will be like a 4, 5, 6 week break in the news cycle on this. Not super long, but not really short, in the news cycle.
9. In anticipation of this, the Democrats, Democratic sympathetic elected officials, and groups whose policy hopes ride on Democratic electoral victories, should make many, many thorough and rehearsed plans, and contingency plans, and contingency plans to the contingency plans, in anticipation of Israel-Palestine protests, MAGA right-wing protests attempts to create negative media spectacle outside the Democratic convention. They must do that without appearing censorious/repressive or having a visible heavy-handed law enforcement response, or without appearing to be permissive of a scene of disorder and chaos and what the low-information voter regards as anti-Americanism. The groups working for Dem victory can try to do this by planning and securing permits now for multiple days and multiple hours of large-scale outdoor orderly solidarity events about the most popular issues and groups favorable to the Democrats, instead of Israel-Palestine, to occupy the space and time. These would include: Reproductive Freedom/Abortion Rights/Women's Rights, Health Care, Medicare, the disabled, Teachers, the labor movement/Unions, Civil and Voting rights, Privacy, librarians, anti-corporate corruption, anti-judicial corruption - not Israel-Palestine stuff, not climate change stuff (any environmental stuff should be anti-pollution/safety oriented), not trans in sports stuff.
I think you underestimate the diversity of opinions of Democratic voters, the proportions of different kinds, and the intensity of their preferences to the point of "deal-breaker"-dom.
Very online or very on-campus or very much the people you talk to is not the same thing as, very numerous.
Just a very brief mention of Gaza in this entire summary of Biden's chances? Being complicit in genocide and war crimes is going to do him in. Young people in college can recognize war criminals when they see them, be they Israeli or American. Enough of them will disqualify Biden as a presidential candidate unless he can somehow make them forget his involvement in, and support of, the deaths of 35,000+ Palestinian civilians, most of them innocent women and children.
I don't want people for whom this issue is priority number one to feel helpless, or told to stuff it only because electoral realities are against them. Israel-Palestine is one of only several issues committed progressives have brought up that they may see as deep moral, ethical issues that have a clear answer, and that should be beyond politics. And it sucks to be told that your choices are to not vote or vote only for a lesser of two evils for President, or any other office. This has long been an issue for the left flank of American politics, from Eugene Debs in the early 20th century, to Henry Wallace in 1948 to George McGovern in 1972 to Jesse Jackson in the 1980s and Dennis Kucinich and Bernie Sanders in the 21st century, the marginalization and the substantial number of genuine left-liberals, left-progressives or Democratic Socialists who constitute a vital component to winning Democratic candidates and campaigns, but *never* have their full range of preferred views represented in policymaking by actual elected Democratic Presidents and elected legislative majorities.
But I have a suggested response to that genuine and reasonable frustration that I think is more productive, and not counterproductive, as would be the proposed solution of deep-sixing the reelection of President Biden, guaranteeing a President Trump, and rolling the dice, that somehow, there will be a competitive election in 2028, and somehow, Democratic politics will have been scared by Biden's defeat into accepting your views of Israel-Palestine and that there are still Palestinians alive then.
That solution would be to vote in this election against every Republican officeholder, by voting for their Democratic opponent, including Biden against Trump. And keeping track of Israel-Palestine related votes in Congress.
Count your friends and enemies on this issue. Look at articles like the one I linked to, below. It identifies the 16 defecting House Democrats who voted with Republicans to force President Biden to send Israel the bombs he want to deny them.
I pasted the list of those House Dems who voted the wrong way. You, and your associates most concerned with preserving Palestinian civilian lives, can best act on this information, by communicating with like minded people who live in these Representatives' districts, looking at their level of support in general and vulnerability, and the state of opinion on this issue, and urge people to make noise against arming Israel to them and their offices, and to support primarying them. And, especially if it appears it could make a difference on the margin, considering moving in to one of their districts, none of which are really hicksville, to become a constituent or even a potential candidate who can primary them or support another strongest possible primary challenger to them who is right (or righter) by your lights on the Israel-Palestine issue.
But on the protests highlighting this on campus - school's out soon, reducing media play for several weeks.
Protestors of course can be back for Chicago, but more things can happen between now and then.
And you politick with the electorate you have, not the electorate you wish you had.
The young people of America, of the kind who care about staying clean about genocide war crime complicity, or who simply want to avoid complicity in American or allied human rights abuses, wrongful and disproportionate wartime violence against civilians [the latter was all happening when George W. Bush was reelected in 2004 by the way, and to a lesser degree, under every President who was reelected, - so Obama in 2012 also], are not the kind of people who will take power and change the governing system of America by extra-Constitutional means by force from the streets.
They are the kind of people who will be victims of people who will ruthlessly exploit or manipulate our Constitutional representative systems flaws or ignore that system or cast it aside using force and intimidation and abuse of police powers for reactionary powers.
Therefore, people who want to start taking genocide and war crimes or lesser aggressions out of the American policy portfolio only can do it through non-violent and ultimately constitutional means.
And that means doing a whole range of things, step-by-step, every election, without interruption to build power and eliminate opposing power, using all means of persuading people and the broadest coalitions, and making personal sacrifices like personally living in swing jurisdictions to vote in critical primaries and general elections, to gain the political clout and track record to get your way.
"Young people in college can recognize war criminals when they see them, be they Israeli or American. "
Only some of them can see, see it that way, or care as their defining priority over all else. And not all voters are young, and most voters have never been to college. In fact, it should be obligatory for every campaign worker to have a sign at their desk reminding them of the following reality: "the median voter in America is over 50 years old, and did not attend college".
Oh, and of the under 50s who did attend college, too many of them waste their votes by living only in fashionable urban, coastal cosmopolitan jurisdictions where there is a surplus of them per electoral vote earned or House or Senate seat gained, even though they are worried climate change will flood the place. I am as sick of political reporters going on "diner safaris" in the heartland as anyone finding white ballcapped "real Americans", but they do it Cletus' vote counts more than yours, because Cletus and JimBob and SueAnn, they all live more spread out in more voting jurisdictions. And in America, the *land's* votes count more than the *people's* do. And if you're right about climate change, but they control climate policy, Cletus or JimBob or SueAnn is gonna end up as you, or your kids' landlord when your city floods out, and the corrupt courts he/she help cement in power will screw over your daughter, grand-daughter, queer kids or non-white kids or loved ones or non-rich or non-boss descendants or loved ones endlessly on behalf of theocrats and plutocrats unless they are carved out of power, one salami-slice at a time, with every successive possible election.
Politicians are only scared of threats from eligible voters, eligible to vote in their own jurisdictions, and media coverage read, consumed engaged by that population - no more, no less.
“In America, the *land's* votes count more than the *people's* do.”
Reflex: “Dirt don’t vote.”
The reported “popular vote” figures are formally meaningless because of the Senate, and distorted by reasonable reactions to winner-take-all states. Still, those figures increasingly are cited as evidence that the Senate and entities downstream from it are illegitimate; it will probably become conventional wisdom soon. When a President says, “I have a mandate to privatize Social Security” after they lose the popular vote, nobody believes it.
Another way of repairing the EC is something we should do anyway: at least triple the size of the House. But that doesn’t even touch the Supreme Court problem, because it doesn’t solve the Senate. Even if a Justice really has to pee, they can hold it until the next Republican administration — although they started doing the pee-pee dance in 2000 and 2024.
Putting down a system's legitimacy does not take away it's power.
Taking its power take's it's power.
If you do that, maybe, if you still remember, you can turn the way the power works into something that works legitimately.
Politics in that way resembles major league sports, if major league sports officiating and league play rules were decided all the time by the championship winning team.
You need win according to whatever stupid rules the game has, however stupid they are, to control the league, and league rule making, to make any rules better.
Not doing that is just lazy.
I underperformed in sports my whole life. Part of it was certainly limited coordination, inclination, not giving good feedback rewards to playing. Some of it was me being too freaking lazy to just commit the specific variations of the rules of on-sides, off-sides, penalties, in or out of bounds, legal and illegal contact with the ball, to memory and diligently apply it in real time. Politics, like it or not, is a semi-athletic activity, on a fixed constitutional-geographic playing field. With demography and opinions less amenable to movement by exhortation than the landscaping in your backyard.
We Democrats need to find a happy medium between our current mindset — shitting our collective pants every time a poll moves against us — and the psychopathic confidence of the GOP ("We're gonna win Massachusetts unless the Democrats cheat"). It's tiring and self-destructive.
Agree that Simon's substack is must reading. That said, whether you think that Biden has a 70% chance of winning this election or a 30% chance, you can't freak out all the time with six months to go.
Dems would rather hand a trifecta to the GOP than encourage and wield any kind of mass civil disobedience or protest. They think the 2020 protests cost them a stronger win and they couldn’t wait to destroy the campus protests ongoing now.
Thank you for your like of my Stubstack post and please consider becoming a free subscriber. The followiing is my post for today. Warm wishes, Elizabeth
Fri, May 17 at 9:07 AM REPUBLICAN LEADERS MOCK AMERICAN RULE OF LAW
On Thursday, May 16th, a group of Republican leaders, in their " Russian Pioneer-like" outfits, similar to boy scout uniforms, were standing outside the N.Y. courtroom and behaving like puppets with Trump as the marionette. It was a very bad performance getting only guffaws from audiences in New York, D.C., across our nation, and even around the world. This pathetic display was an attempt to degrade our system of laws where evidence of a crime begets a trial. Having said that, this act of demolition of our form of justice is lost on most Trumpers and MAGA. These people don't read our outcries nor do they understand our expressions of indignation. Their minds are closed and I believe that only time and perhaps the incarceration of Trump will be the necromancy to communicate with their nearly dead minds.
Brainwashing was started over 100 years ago in totalitarian countries such as Germany, Austria, Italy, China, and Russia. It is defined as "telling lies over and over until it is perceived as the truth." (wikipedia) It was used in Germany by Hitler to convert an entire peaceful nation into mass murderers and over six million people died. It took WWII to end Hitler's madness, but then in reality it is not over. Putin spent his entire spy years living and working in East Germany. He acquired Hitler's tools to control the public and returned to Russia to become - first the head of the FSB (Security Services) and then the President of Russia. He is just as ruthless as Hitler, and has managed to entrap and use Donald Trump with the same bribery techniques he practiced while in Germany.
Let's stop sugar-coating this dire situation. Trump has been chasing money since he was old enough to walk. He filed six bankruptcies because he has no idea of how to legally manage money. Both Trump Jr and Eric have bragged about the Trump Organization receiving $100 million from Russian banks. These banks, managed entirely by the KGB/FSB give money to foreigners to either laundry black cash into another country's economy, OR to bribe a foreigner to work for Russia. ProPublica wrote "Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even before the Pandemic) that It'll Weigh Down the U.S. Economy for Years." To also remind Americans, Biden has since paid off our national debt by one trillion dollars.
The Mueller Report was created to investigate Trump and his relationship with Russia. William Barr, the AG at the time, prevented the American public to absorb the full impact of the 2-year and $32 million dollar investigation. "On March 24, 2019, which may go down as one of the most artfully deceptive and effective undertakings in the history of spin control. In this masterpiece of disinformation, Barr completely stole Mueller's thunder, misrepresented it, and presented Trump forces (including the Russians) with a victory they then used to label the entire Trump-Russia scandal as a hoax." (Unger, American Kompromat).
Trump's massive and many-sided destructiveness has surpassed plain lying to the American public. He has hypnotized and brainwashed Republicans like they are walking-talking brainless puppets. He is not just dangerously unfit to be the President of the United States, but his clandestine relationship with Russia appears to be an act of treason.
I honestly think that a swap would be would probably work out for the Dems, depending on who they could get. If only for the buzzworthy drama factor. It would probably would also win over some low-info voters that equate loudness with doing important things.
I think Biden would have to be down 5+ points in the tipping point state before a swap would make any sense, though. Because even though I think it's more likely than not that a swap works, there's still so much downside risk.
In 2016, I thought that Biden was nobody’s favorite — yet a sufficient candidate for every faction in the coalition, which made him the best candidate. Is that “satisficing”? I never knew when to use that word.
I’m of course a Warren fan, and I was super Bernie 2016 — but Bernie 2020 was not playing for an absolute majority of Dem voters the way 2016 was. Coming up on Super Tuesday, it looked like Bernie had about 35% of the delegates, and had a decent chance of real power at the convention because his opponents trailed him, individually…as long as the rest of the party did not unite behind a single normie candidate. And how can Democrats ever decide anything like that?
Enter one James Clyburn, who said, essentially, “If you don’t want the Dems to run Bernie, and your name isn’t ’Biden’, you need to drop out. Now.”
It worked, perhaps because he could promise to punish holdouts.
—
Endnote: No, I’m really not a Bernie 2020 fan. His goal in Iowa 2020, for instance, wasn’t really to win caucuses; the campaign applied pressure to ensure first-vote numbers would be publicized, despite them being worse than useless in caucus results — because the campaign knew that many of their young supporters would bail from the caucus site after the first poll. Did the Bernie campaign demands for first-poll results have costs? Possibly? Did it result in last-minute changes to the tally software, or reduce time for rehearsals? I have no idea, but thank god the Iowa caucus is dead.
Biden is doing what is doing because he understoond listening to pollsters and pundits is counterpoductive and a high risk strategy in the long term. Professor Allan Lichtman built a model that got proved to be ultra-effective than every 538 adjust to predict who will be president. According to Lichtman is not things punditocracy like to indulge like "candidate age, candidate skin color or candidate eloquency, bla bla bla etc..." determining the ouctome of every election but the performance provided by the party in power during the mandate. Trump was elected in 2016 because during second Obama term Dems didn't deliver any important reform and any relevant succes on foreign policy. In 2020 Trump lost because you had BLM protests, recession and impeachment (I remeber when many pundits argued BLM protest actually could help Trump pushing him as the candidate of "law and order" too bad he was the president so he suffered the responsability of lack of law and order).
So, getting back to 2024 what are chanches according to Lichtman model Biden will get relected? Surely higher than pollsters and pundits give him, because his model is focused on governance and not vibes incapsulated into stochastic probability. Of course, as professor Lichtman himself said Biden can still lose, especially if campus protests degenerate into mass social unrest (wich I personally doubt, but time will tell) RFK Jr keep polling high and the administration doesnt' achieve any significant succes on foreign policy. For these reasons Biden could lose, not because of "age" or whatever. And Biden knows well, this is why IMO he's following the Lichtman way and not the Ezra Klein - Nate Silver/Cohn way.
I think the biggest drag on Biden is a media which delights in putting him down at every opportunity. For money. For clicks. The NYT coverage has been shameful. Biden screams into a void.
There’s also the under-covered reality of Russian, Chinese, Iranian, etc. mis- and disinformation clogging the Facebook, Instagram, X and other social-media feeds of millions of Americans with all kinds of invented lies and scurrilous stories about Biden and his administration. This, also, must surely be keeping his poll numbers down. Other than publicizing this fact more aggressively, I’m not sure how it can be effectively countered.
If the Iranians are directing their misinformation and disinformation in an anti-Biden, pro-Trump way, they are own-goal'ing the 'eff out of themselves. And I'm not saying this to call Biden any kind of a foreign policy dove - just that he is sane and he considers national and international consequences and long-term consequences beyond the personal and the domestic political. If contributing to a Trump return to power, the Iranians are cracking wide open, as wide as possibly can be, the important, American, permission structure for Israeli preemptive attacks on Iran, its weapons programs, and groups it backs by any and all means, including nuclear, and unlimited Trump administration escalation or retaliation with any and all weapons in the US arsenal against Iran, including nuclear. Imagine the sycophants Trump would put in charge of DoD, NSC, DNI, State, and CJCS - blowhards and nutjobs like Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton (if they could find a replacement), Mike Flynn, etc.
Therefore, I doubt the Iranians are doing a deliberate defeat Biden focused cyber or information strategy.
With China it's more of a toss-up. Trump spoke up against "Jina/Gina/China" plenty, and slapped on tariffs, so they probably don't like that. But they still may rather have Trump in office as an American adversary/competitor than Biden since Biden tries to walk more of the walk on industrial policy revival, Trump is an incompetent mess, seems bribable, and really may not give a crap at all about Taiwan or Chinese territorial muscling in the South China or East China Sea against US allies, just likes to whine about Chinese exports, viruses, and immigrants. So, they may be doing cyber and psywar with an anti-Biden tilt.
Russia, definitely motivated to do it, because they've got a rage "jones" against the American establishment and simply see anything injuring America as a victory for them, and a way to move the needle favorably on Ukraine and NATO with a Trump inauguration 2025.
North Korea, despite not making a honeymoon deal with Donnie last time around, probably prefers him, because he loves to dunk on South Korea.
Anne Applebaum covered this topic thoroughly in The Atlantic, in a May 6th piece entitled “THE NEW PROPAGANDA WAR”.
Or, perhaps the polls that show Biden losing are as wrong as every poll over the last four years. In almost every election since 2020 liberals have won and in many cases won big. In every state, abortion has outperformed the polls by a lot.
That's what "Simon says".
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/a-good-week-for-biden-alito-the-insurrectionist?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1223483&post_id=144725413&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=v62di&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo1MjM1MTExMCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTQ0NzI1NDEzLCJpYXQiOjE3MTU5NjE0MTEsImV4cCI6MTcxODU1MzQxMSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTEyMjM0ODMiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.CAxbFPtwSGpaV4kiLR1D_FCCgKb42yUVrUN6I_dTny0
I like the way he thinks!
Just now Charlie Kirk tweeted "Trump’s one debate term should be to mandate a drug test before Biden takes the stage," which to me says that the MAGA Reich are repeating the same mistakes they made ahead of the debates four years ago, that pattern of trying to correct for underestimating Biden by saying he's on performance-enhancing drugs.
It's easy to get antsy because the stakes are so existential. Just know the other guys are panicking too and Trump's path back to power is just as perilous as Biden's. Even in a fractured media environment a bad night for Trump is going to percolate down to the lowest strata of info.
From Democracy to Democrazy attempts to warn Americans of Trump's relationship to Putin. People across the United States think that Trump's crimes were committed because of his inflated ego and his desire to continue as a big-shot President on the world stage. What if his real crime is treason? What if he was compromised by Putin - which means there are photos, or he was being controlled and bribed because of money owed to Russians? Both Eric and Trump Jr have bragged about the Trump Organization receiving $100 million from Russian banks. (www.businessinsider.com) Russian banks, which are all controlled by the KGB/FSB, give money to foreigners to either laundry black cash into another countries economy, or to trap a foreigner to work with Russia. Trump has been chasing money since he learned to walk, so if Russia is his source he will do and say whatever necessary to receive more funds from them. Trump and his followers talk about "saving America" but the realistic facts and proof show us that they are destroying our country. Proof was seen in the insurrection on January 6th, 2021 and found in Democrazy.
Microsoft has proven that 58% of all cyber attacks into the U.S. come from Russia. They have hacked into our: food and supplies, gas and oil, banks and finance, military and the Pentagon information, cell phone systems, hospitals and health care, and interferred in our elections. This list probably includes our polls which Americans blindly take for granted and believe. Russians know that the polls sway voters. Putin has been shouting at the wind for months that Trump will win the 2024 elections. What does he know that we do not?
Brian, you wrote a piece awhile back that I loved about how sometimes politics isn’t complicated. Ron DeSantis got spanked in the primary because he was visibly, viscerally unappealing to a lot of people, and so his opponents hammered him on his weaknesses, and he lost. I think it’s the same with Biden. You are simply not going to get over 50% of people in the year of our lord 2024 to LOVE a visibly old, mumbly white man with middle-of-the-road politics. Too progressive for conservatives, too conservative for progressives, and not a ton of charisma or passion, which means the only people who love him are centrists, and centrists are not known for inspiring a zealous fervor to vote.
What I think remains to be seen is the level of MAGApathy. I remain pleasantly surprised at how few people turn up to his trials, how sparsely attended his rallies are. Technically you can take a poll without getting off the couch or committing to anything. I’m not convinced MAGA are as fired up as the Democratic base (and for all my bitching, I’m pretty fired up). With (presumably) a guilty verdict and month after month of Trump rambling about toilets, I think this election is going to be decided based on which side is more apathetic toward the fate of the country. I’m not convinced MAGA is actually worried about the fate of the country; I think they like The Trump Show, and their favorite show is getting kind of slow and awkward and embarrassing.
Biden isn't going to lose this election. The Democrats have been FAR overperforming in every election since 2016, when tRump stole it.
Alsobrooks just beat her opponent in Maryland by several points, when all the polls showed her losing by a lot. A LOT.
So you're another one I'm putting on my "do not watch" list.
I’ve read that after Alsobrook’s opponent let a racial slur slip (in March) that lead started getting smaller and it was pretty even in the final week.
Brian,
In your penultimate three paragraphs you arrive at a great synthesis of actions that need to be taken. Those and the title of your article today, make the pivot from critique to action that can still be taken.
I got something this AM from in front of their paywall to consider from FWIW about "the Groups" optimizing their Social Media tactics. Beyond the White House and campaign, as I got at in a comment over the last week or so, the progressive interest groups need to freakin' wake up, modernize, not count on yesterday's Social Media, and get the heck on TikTok!
https://www.fwiw.news/p/the-real-numbers-democrats-should?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=290174&post_id=144721068&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=v62di&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
(I'll be sharing this elsewhere)
I am also heartened to hear that you are involved in an engaged, respectful dialogue, with Simon Rosenberg. I'm on Hopium Chronicles too. Is Simon accurately weighing and excluding certain poles as GOP partisan generated noise? Is he expecting the POTUS election electorate to resemble the off-year and special election electorates too much?- who knows? But he projects a more useful attitude and set of accompanying actions and style of online behavior than many more doomer-y folk, even if the doomer-y are more accurately forecasting, in agreement with the contempory and longstanding polling averages.
I have another thought to offer: Democrats and supporters of Democrats are leaving the field of getting into Republicans' heads and shining a light on their coalition fissures a bit too fallow. And even if you can't get the MSM political reporters to talk about substantive policy, talking about factional and ideological rifts and "who dislikes/distrusts who" is like catnip for those for those people to write on. Amplify stories like that, and its like throwing a t-bone steak at a guard dog.
Particular things to play up, and keep the conversation going on are: The continued 20% Haley vote in the primaries and its hypothetical worst-case mathematical consequences for Trump in the general in swing states, under stay home or switch or write-in scenarios.
More importantly, Trump does not just have GOP critics coming at him from common-sense, pro-democracy, pro-Constitution, or national security points of view like Liz Cheney, Adam Kinziger, or Mitt Romney, he also has critics in the religious right movement who have written and said they feel betrayed by Trump's comments on personally only favoring limited week bans on abortion and only on a state by state basis. And Ann Coulter of the conservative media sphere has repeatedly said she doesn't trust Trump to deliver on immigration control or the border wall. Amplify *those* voices to amplify the sense of distrust and futility of politics. It's called "ratfucking" but it can done simply by referring to quotes to reporters when the opportunity strikes, without even fabricating anything.
A follow-on to my comment here, specifically about the damage the Israel-Gaza war, and the protests in response, are doing to the Biden coalition and his ultimate potential vote totals:
1. Clearly the fact of it happening and going on so long brings up rifts between young and old, centrist and progressive, white and non-white in the Dem coalition, while Republicans, even if rank-and-file are not monolithically enthused about the Israeli side, are comfortable at the elite and activist engaged level to just go whole hog and constantly overbid with a pro-Israeli stance, so they love the conflict, they love that Democrats hate, and they love attention being put to it.
2. Getting to a cease-fire ASAP would be the best thing morally, objectively, and for Biden and the Dem campaigns politically
3. It would not be the best thing for Netanyahu politically, because that broadly pushes against the likelihood of it happening, or him moving good faith in that direction. And, it would not be a good thing really for pretty much any members of his coalition as currently constituted, because they face probable worse prospects in an election. And only a break-up, defection, not external protest, would force Israeli elections.
4. Additionally, Netanyahu, given his side-taking with the Republicans in the 21st century, and possibly to a degree since the 1990s, *wants* Trump to win, to get wider latitude, and he understands factors 1, 2, and 3.
5. Indeed, the *only* internal restraint/disincentive/deterrent he has on further escalation of violence on Palestinians or especially widening of the fighting w/ Hezbollah, other Iranian proxies and Hezbollah, is a) Israel Jewish public distaste for being under heavy rocket fire that compels them to move from their homes and interrupt their lives to be in shelters [and Hezbollah can produce the most of that], and b) Intensified military manpower needs that would compel reconsideration of, or exceptions to, the draft exemptions of the yeshiva students who are constituents of the ultra-religious parties in his coalition, or in the absence of that, an even more grossly disproportionate mobilization, service and casualty burden on more secular Israelis tilted so much that the less religious, more secular rightist parties in his coalition balk. [again, ground conflict with Hezbollah would impose the greatest strain of this type].
6. The protests on elite and large American university campuses focus a great deal of attention via all media outlets, opposition to Biden/US support to Israel, and since the GOP has no executive responsibilities now, it hurts them not a bit, they can play both ends.
7. Aside from the middling poor prospects of getting a ceasefire, a hopeful impending development is that we are here on May 17th, and the college school year is nearly over. The place for protest will *soon be depopulated*. Students and faculty will have their summer plans to attend to.
8. Despite this, if conditions and rews reporting from the region remain as they are, protests like these will certainly be planned for the Chicago Democratic Convention in July I think. So there will be like a 4, 5, 6 week break in the news cycle on this. Not super long, but not really short, in the news cycle.
9. In anticipation of this, the Democrats, Democratic sympathetic elected officials, and groups whose policy hopes ride on Democratic electoral victories, should make many, many thorough and rehearsed plans, and contingency plans, and contingency plans to the contingency plans, in anticipation of Israel-Palestine protests, MAGA right-wing protests attempts to create negative media spectacle outside the Democratic convention. They must do that without appearing censorious/repressive or having a visible heavy-handed law enforcement response, or without appearing to be permissive of a scene of disorder and chaos and what the low-information voter regards as anti-Americanism. The groups working for Dem victory can try to do this by planning and securing permits now for multiple days and multiple hours of large-scale outdoor orderly solidarity events about the most popular issues and groups favorable to the Democrats, instead of Israel-Palestine, to occupy the space and time. These would include: Reproductive Freedom/Abortion Rights/Women's Rights, Health Care, Medicare, the disabled, Teachers, the labor movement/Unions, Civil and Voting rights, Privacy, librarians, anti-corporate corruption, anti-judicial corruption - not Israel-Palestine stuff, not climate change stuff (any environmental stuff should be anti-pollution/safety oriented), not trans in sports stuff.
The Democrats could also align their policy with their voters. Wouldn’t that be easier for everyone?
I think you underestimate the diversity of opinions of Democratic voters, the proportions of different kinds, and the intensity of their preferences to the point of "deal-breaker"-dom.
Very online or very on-campus or very much the people you talk to is not the same thing as, very numerous.
Just a very brief mention of Gaza in this entire summary of Biden's chances? Being complicit in genocide and war crimes is going to do him in. Young people in college can recognize war criminals when they see them, be they Israeli or American. Enough of them will disqualify Biden as a presidential candidate unless he can somehow make them forget his involvement in, and support of, the deaths of 35,000+ Palestinian civilians, most of them innocent women and children.
I don't want people for whom this issue is priority number one to feel helpless, or told to stuff it only because electoral realities are against them. Israel-Palestine is one of only several issues committed progressives have brought up that they may see as deep moral, ethical issues that have a clear answer, and that should be beyond politics. And it sucks to be told that your choices are to not vote or vote only for a lesser of two evils for President, or any other office. This has long been an issue for the left flank of American politics, from Eugene Debs in the early 20th century, to Henry Wallace in 1948 to George McGovern in 1972 to Jesse Jackson in the 1980s and Dennis Kucinich and Bernie Sanders in the 21st century, the marginalization and the substantial number of genuine left-liberals, left-progressives or Democratic Socialists who constitute a vital component to winning Democratic candidates and campaigns, but *never* have their full range of preferred views represented in policymaking by actual elected Democratic Presidents and elected legislative majorities.
But I have a suggested response to that genuine and reasonable frustration that I think is more productive, and not counterproductive, as would be the proposed solution of deep-sixing the reelection of President Biden, guaranteeing a President Trump, and rolling the dice, that somehow, there will be a competitive election in 2028, and somehow, Democratic politics will have been scared by Biden's defeat into accepting your views of Israel-Palestine and that there are still Palestinians alive then.
That solution would be to vote in this election against every Republican officeholder, by voting for their Democratic opponent, including Biden against Trump. And keeping track of Israel-Palestine related votes in Congress.
Count your friends and enemies on this issue. Look at articles like the one I linked to, below. It identifies the 16 defecting House Democrats who voted with Republicans to force President Biden to send Israel the bombs he want to deny them.
I pasted the list of those House Dems who voted the wrong way. You, and your associates most concerned with preserving Palestinian civilian lives, can best act on this information, by communicating with like minded people who live in these Representatives' districts, looking at their level of support in general and vulnerability, and the state of opinion on this issue, and urge people to make noise against arming Israel to them and their offices, and to support primarying them. And, especially if it appears it could make a difference on the margin, considering moving in to one of their districts, none of which are really hicksville, to become a constituent or even a potential candidate who can primary them or support another strongest possible primary challenger to them who is right (or righter) by your lights on the Israel-Palestine issue.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/these-16-house-democrats-voted-to-force-biden-to-deliver-withheld-aid-to-israel/ar-BB1mwEiO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=ca208e69f43a4d14b281aa462654ef66&ei=131
Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania
Angie Craig of Minnesota
Henry Cuellar of Texas
Don Davis of North Carolina
Lois Frankel of Florida
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Jared Golden of Maine
Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey
Greg Landsman of Ohio
Jared Moskowitz of Florida
Frank Pallone of New Jersey
Mary Peltola of Alaska
David Scott of Georgia
Darren Soto of Florida
Tom Suozzi of New York
Ritchie Torres of New York
Hopefully there will be a ceasefire soon.
But on the protests highlighting this on campus - school's out soon, reducing media play for several weeks.
Protestors of course can be back for Chicago, but more things can happen between now and then.
And you politick with the electorate you have, not the electorate you wish you had.
The young people of America, of the kind who care about staying clean about genocide war crime complicity, or who simply want to avoid complicity in American or allied human rights abuses, wrongful and disproportionate wartime violence against civilians [the latter was all happening when George W. Bush was reelected in 2004 by the way, and to a lesser degree, under every President who was reelected, - so Obama in 2012 also], are not the kind of people who will take power and change the governing system of America by extra-Constitutional means by force from the streets.
They are the kind of people who will be victims of people who will ruthlessly exploit or manipulate our Constitutional representative systems flaws or ignore that system or cast it aside using force and intimidation and abuse of police powers for reactionary powers.
Therefore, people who want to start taking genocide and war crimes or lesser aggressions out of the American policy portfolio only can do it through non-violent and ultimately constitutional means.
And that means doing a whole range of things, step-by-step, every election, without interruption to build power and eliminate opposing power, using all means of persuading people and the broadest coalitions, and making personal sacrifices like personally living in swing jurisdictions to vote in critical primaries and general elections, to gain the political clout and track record to get your way.
"Young people in college can recognize war criminals when they see them, be they Israeli or American. "
Only some of them can see, see it that way, or care as their defining priority over all else. And not all voters are young, and most voters have never been to college. In fact, it should be obligatory for every campaign worker to have a sign at their desk reminding them of the following reality: "the median voter in America is over 50 years old, and did not attend college".
Oh, and of the under 50s who did attend college, too many of them waste their votes by living only in fashionable urban, coastal cosmopolitan jurisdictions where there is a surplus of them per electoral vote earned or House or Senate seat gained, even though they are worried climate change will flood the place. I am as sick of political reporters going on "diner safaris" in the heartland as anyone finding white ballcapped "real Americans", but they do it Cletus' vote counts more than yours, because Cletus and JimBob and SueAnn, they all live more spread out in more voting jurisdictions. And in America, the *land's* votes count more than the *people's* do. And if you're right about climate change, but they control climate policy, Cletus or JimBob or SueAnn is gonna end up as you, or your kids' landlord when your city floods out, and the corrupt courts he/she help cement in power will screw over your daughter, grand-daughter, queer kids or non-white kids or loved ones or non-rich or non-boss descendants or loved ones endlessly on behalf of theocrats and plutocrats unless they are carved out of power, one salami-slice at a time, with every successive possible election.
Politicians are only scared of threats from eligible voters, eligible to vote in their own jurisdictions, and media coverage read, consumed engaged by that population - no more, no less.
“In America, the *land's* votes count more than the *people's* do.”
Reflex: “Dirt don’t vote.”
The reported “popular vote” figures are formally meaningless because of the Senate, and distorted by reasonable reactions to winner-take-all states. Still, those figures increasingly are cited as evidence that the Senate and entities downstream from it are illegitimate; it will probably become conventional wisdom soon. When a President says, “I have a mandate to privatize Social Security” after they lose the popular vote, nobody believes it.
Another way of repairing the EC is something we should do anyway: at least triple the size of the House. But that doesn’t even touch the Supreme Court problem, because it doesn’t solve the Senate. Even if a Justice really has to pee, they can hold it until the next Republican administration — although they started doing the pee-pee dance in 2000 and 2024.
Putting down a system's legitimacy does not take away it's power.
Taking its power take's it's power.
If you do that, maybe, if you still remember, you can turn the way the power works into something that works legitimately.
Politics in that way resembles major league sports, if major league sports officiating and league play rules were decided all the time by the championship winning team.
You need win according to whatever stupid rules the game has, however stupid they are, to control the league, and league rule making, to make any rules better.
Not doing that is just lazy.
I underperformed in sports my whole life. Part of it was certainly limited coordination, inclination, not giving good feedback rewards to playing. Some of it was me being too freaking lazy to just commit the specific variations of the rules of on-sides, off-sides, penalties, in or out of bounds, legal and illegal contact with the ball, to memory and diligently apply it in real time. Politics, like it or not, is a semi-athletic activity, on a fixed constitutional-geographic playing field. With demography and opinions less amenable to movement by exhortation than the landscaping in your backyard.
Alternate ticket to me is the hell I don’t know. Until I know the people being considered, I’m not going to be real excited about this option
We Democrats need to find a happy medium between our current mindset — shitting our collective pants every time a poll moves against us — and the psychopathic confidence of the GOP ("We're gonna win Massachusetts unless the Democrats cheat"). It's tiring and self-destructive.
That's what this substack is for:
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/a-good-week-for-biden-alito-the-insurrectionist?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1223483&post_id=144725413&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=v62di&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo1MjM1MTExMCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTQ0NzI1NDEzLCJpYXQiOjE3MTU5NjE0MTEsImV4cCI6MTcxODU1MzQxMSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTEyMjM0ODMiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.CAxbFPtwSGpaV4kiLR1D_FCCgKb42yUVrUN6I_dTny0
Agree that Simon's substack is must reading. That said, whether you think that Biden has a 70% chance of winning this election or a 30% chance, you can't freak out all the time with six months to go.
Exactly. Might as well swagger, even when polls are down or up.
Dems would rather hand a trifecta to the GOP than encourage and wield any kind of mass civil disobedience or protest. They think the 2020 protests cost them a stronger win and they couldn’t wait to destroy the campus protests ongoing now.
I’lll wave to them as I drive by the gulag.
Abortion with white chicks would be different
The impact of the upcoming guilty verdict is also a big data point.
Thank you for your like of my Stubstack post and please consider becoming a free subscriber. The followiing is my post for today. Warm wishes, Elizabeth
Fri, May 17 at 9:07 AM REPUBLICAN LEADERS MOCK AMERICAN RULE OF LAW
On Thursday, May 16th, a group of Republican leaders, in their " Russian Pioneer-like" outfits, similar to boy scout uniforms, were standing outside the N.Y. courtroom and behaving like puppets with Trump as the marionette. It was a very bad performance getting only guffaws from audiences in New York, D.C., across our nation, and even around the world. This pathetic display was an attempt to degrade our system of laws where evidence of a crime begets a trial. Having said that, this act of demolition of our form of justice is lost on most Trumpers and MAGA. These people don't read our outcries nor do they understand our expressions of indignation. Their minds are closed and I believe that only time and perhaps the incarceration of Trump will be the necromancy to communicate with their nearly dead minds.
Brainwashing was started over 100 years ago in totalitarian countries such as Germany, Austria, Italy, China, and Russia. It is defined as "telling lies over and over until it is perceived as the truth." (wikipedia) It was used in Germany by Hitler to convert an entire peaceful nation into mass murderers and over six million people died. It took WWII to end Hitler's madness, but then in reality it is not over. Putin spent his entire spy years living and working in East Germany. He acquired Hitler's tools to control the public and returned to Russia to become - first the head of the FSB (Security Services) and then the President of Russia. He is just as ruthless as Hitler, and has managed to entrap and use Donald Trump with the same bribery techniques he practiced while in Germany.
Let's stop sugar-coating this dire situation. Trump has been chasing money since he was old enough to walk. He filed six bankruptcies because he has no idea of how to legally manage money. Both Trump Jr and Eric have bragged about the Trump Organization receiving $100 million from Russian banks. These banks, managed entirely by the KGB/FSB give money to foreigners to either laundry black cash into another country's economy, OR to bribe a foreigner to work for Russia. ProPublica wrote "Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even before the Pandemic) that It'll Weigh Down the U.S. Economy for Years." To also remind Americans, Biden has since paid off our national debt by one trillion dollars.
The Mueller Report was created to investigate Trump and his relationship with Russia. William Barr, the AG at the time, prevented the American public to absorb the full impact of the 2-year and $32 million dollar investigation. "On March 24, 2019, which may go down as one of the most artfully deceptive and effective undertakings in the history of spin control. In this masterpiece of disinformation, Barr completely stole Mueller's thunder, misrepresented it, and presented Trump forces (including the Russians) with a victory they then used to label the entire Trump-Russia scandal as a hoax." (Unger, American Kompromat).
Trump's massive and many-sided destructiveness has surpassed plain lying to the American public. He has hypnotized and brainwashed Republicans like they are walking-talking brainless puppets. He is not just dangerously unfit to be the President of the United States, but his clandestine relationship with Russia appears to be an act of treason.
Elizabeth http://www.democrazy2020.org
I honestly think that a swap would be would probably work out for the Dems, depending on who they could get. If only for the buzzworthy drama factor. It would probably would also win over some low-info voters that equate loudness with doing important things.
I think Biden would have to be down 5+ points in the tipping point state before a swap would make any sense, though. Because even though I think it's more likely than not that a swap works, there's still so much downside risk.
In 2016, I thought that Biden was nobody’s favorite — yet a sufficient candidate for every faction in the coalition, which made him the best candidate. Is that “satisficing”? I never knew when to use that word.
I’m of course a Warren fan, and I was super Bernie 2016 — but Bernie 2020 was not playing for an absolute majority of Dem voters the way 2016 was. Coming up on Super Tuesday, it looked like Bernie had about 35% of the delegates, and had a decent chance of real power at the convention because his opponents trailed him, individually…as long as the rest of the party did not unite behind a single normie candidate. And how can Democrats ever decide anything like that?
Enter one James Clyburn, who said, essentially, “If you don’t want the Dems to run Bernie, and your name isn’t ’Biden’, you need to drop out. Now.”
It worked, perhaps because he could promise to punish holdouts.
—
Endnote: No, I’m really not a Bernie 2020 fan. His goal in Iowa 2020, for instance, wasn’t really to win caucuses; the campaign applied pressure to ensure first-vote numbers would be publicized, despite them being worse than useless in caucus results — because the campaign knew that many of their young supporters would bail from the caucus site after the first poll. Did the Bernie campaign demands for first-poll results have costs? Possibly? Did it result in last-minute changes to the tally software, or reduce time for rehearsals? I have no idea, but thank god the Iowa caucus is dead.
Biden is doing what is doing because he understoond listening to pollsters and pundits is counterpoductive and a high risk strategy in the long term. Professor Allan Lichtman built a model that got proved to be ultra-effective than every 538 adjust to predict who will be president. According to Lichtman is not things punditocracy like to indulge like "candidate age, candidate skin color or candidate eloquency, bla bla bla etc..." determining the ouctome of every election but the performance provided by the party in power during the mandate. Trump was elected in 2016 because during second Obama term Dems didn't deliver any important reform and any relevant succes on foreign policy. In 2020 Trump lost because you had BLM protests, recession and impeachment (I remeber when many pundits argued BLM protest actually could help Trump pushing him as the candidate of "law and order" too bad he was the president so he suffered the responsability of lack of law and order).
So, getting back to 2024 what are chanches according to Lichtman model Biden will get relected? Surely higher than pollsters and pundits give him, because his model is focused on governance and not vibes incapsulated into stochastic probability. Of course, as professor Lichtman himself said Biden can still lose, especially if campus protests degenerate into mass social unrest (wich I personally doubt, but time will tell) RFK Jr keep polling high and the administration doesnt' achieve any significant succes on foreign policy. For these reasons Biden could lose, not because of "age" or whatever. And Biden knows well, this is why IMO he's following the Lichtman way and not the Ezra Klein - Nate Silver/Cohn way.
“during second Obama term Dems didn't deliver any important reform”
I wonder why that could be.