A top Democratic pollster says Biden will likely be up two or three points by late April. THAT's when we'll know if we've got a big problem on our hands.
My feeling is there are too many people not paying attention. They have no idea of what Trump is planning, they have no clue about Project 2025. I have talked to some of these people. I really believe abortion and reproductive freedom is going to be a huge issue. We just need to make sure everyone knows what’s at stake.
I'll reiterate, any Democrat can win anywhere, even in R+30 counties, as long as the Democrat hammers on Dobbs all day every day. Prevaricate or try to straddle and lose lose lose.
Prediction: You will be doing no such thing, Brian.
Consider what you’re suggesting here. You’re considering giving Donald Trump veto power over the Democratic ticket. I know that doesn’t seem like what we’re doing here, but it literally is.
If Biden isn’t “ahead by two or three points”, by late April, presumably in the RCP polling average, then—solely because Trump is the nominee—you’re going to clamor to ditch the president we think has done a damn good job. And probably his historic running mate, too.
More or less, you’re suggesting granting Trump even more power than he already has, letting our fear of him ironically do his work for him, half a year before a single vote has been cast.
Think carefully about that logic train before you take it to its destination.
You’ve rightfully bashed Dems for years when they failed to do the right thing, cravenly cowered before right-wing mendacity, or refused to call out bad faith bullshit when they saw it.
Explain how letting our fear of a Trump dictatorship push us to ditch a president and vice president we genuinely admire would be any less craven, any less surrendering without a fight on the merits, any less unprincipled.
No incumbent party in American history has thought like that. Perhaps they should; perhaps sincerity and sincere admiration is for losers and suckers.
Perhaps the GOP should have ditched Trump purely due to polls, and the Dems Obama at his lowest point, for the same reason. Perhaps Truman should have been booted at the first sign of trouble, nevermind the grim polls on the eve of Election Day.
Perhaps telling the primary voters their choice is bad and going back to the smoke-filled rooms is how we need to do things to save democracy. Crazier, less intuitive arguments hsve been made of late.
But I tend to think the voters, push comes to shove, can see right through these things. And to quote a certain other pundit, sincerity is an underrated aspect of modern politics.
Prediction: Biden will probably not be up two or three points in the polls, come late April. At least, it’s not wise to cross your fingers and count on it.
Barring an acute medical event, assuming you think Biden has done a good job, I think you will still be with him, and will not be making the case for him to step aside.
That wouldn’t be in keeping with what I’ve read from you, and more to the point, it wouldn’t be any kind of good faith politics as I understand it. It certainly wouldn’t be a moment to be proud of.
So what are you suggesting? That we stick we Biden if it's clear he cannot win? There's no reason for him to be trailing his opponent in every poll. 2024 is an election we cannot afford to lose that's why there is so much panic. We NEED to win and it just seems like fot whatever reason, age, inflation etc that Americans just don't want Biden even though I think he's been a great president. He's favorable numbers are in the 30s. That's a big problem and this article doesn't even mention it. I feel like we're damned no matter what direction we go. Maybe Trump is inevitable
I would not necessarily suggest we stick with Biden if it's "clear he cannot win", no.
But a.) I do not believe that is clear, nor do the polls indicate as such, and,
b.) Parties have stuck with incumbent nominees in the past that polling seemed to indicate "clearly cannot win", and won. Trump himself nearly won, with polls showing him down nearly double digits.
What I am suggesting, in short, is that we man up a little.
It may not seem like it now, but history will condemn us if we don't--far more than, say, if we fear losing more than doing the right thing.
I don’t know if I’ll ever get behind changing out the horse midstream. There the whole “a bird in hand is better than two in the bush” thing. Biden already beat Trump once and only one of two things will be true in 2024:
1. Biden will win again
2. Americans will have decided that they WANT what Trump is offering…and that means it doesn’t matter who the Dems nominate.
This isn’t 1992. There aren’t many swing voters now. People know who Trump is and either want it or don’t. We need to come to terms with THAT, not be out here wetting the bed and freaking nominating a brand-new candidate in August. That’s beyond an own goal - it’s political malpractice.
When one candidate (Trump) has a captive TV network (no matter how much the owner hates him) as well as hundreds of radio stations programing outright lies about his opponent (Biden) and the other candidate is faced with daily media coverage promoting panic, doubts, or false comparisons (both sides......), no wonder the polls are not reassuring. I am not sure Biden or his campaign can really do much about this. The State of the Union was fine but the memory of it will fade in a week or two.
If we want (we actually don't) to use the horse-race rhetoric much political reporting gets reduced to, this is like a handicap race where the favored horse has to carry more weight than the others. From the get-go we can assume Biden is starting 2 or 3 points down. The best way to deal with that is to get out to vote every "occasional" Democratic voter still breathing that one can find, esp. in states like Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and even (especially) states like North Carolina.
"This is why I’d still like the Biden campaign to be candid with the party rank-and-file about how we got to this point."
Oh heavens, no.
Just what the Biden team needs: a mea culpa that allows the media to drag him through the mud and run endless stories about "the Biden campaign in crisis," "can Biden save his sinking ship from capsizing" etc etc
Project confidence (it's a close race!) and you'll be amazed how well that view will catch on in the media and the electorate.
If Biden is losing in the polls by 10 points, he should still continue in the race because a smashing victory by Donald Trump will show the US what a shithole nation it has become. I already have a home I own in a Western European democracy, and probably most of the people here can leave shithole USA when Trump takes over. I feel sorry for those who hate Trump and MAGA and must suffer under his rule, but you know, "Death to America!" -- once shouted in the streets of Teheran -- now seems like an excellent slogan to me. Let Biden be Biden, keep Biden on the ticket, and let the subhuman douchebags take over your misbegotten country as it reaches the end of its horrible existence.
I don't get why anyone pays attention to polls after the last 8 elections where the polls failed spectacularly to predict the outcomes. It's an exercise in solipsism anyway. Biden is not going away absent an unexpected health emergency.
Even if all of the Biden administration amazing accomplishments are ignored, voting for Trump is a nonstarter for the most important reason: democracy vs. autocracy. Easy decision. Within a democratic administration, there is room to voice your opinion and influence outcomes. As an autocracy, no such opportunity exists. Look at Trump's promises to be a dictator. Look at what Putin is doing to preserve his "re-election." Simple. Vote Democratic. Save the Republic.
I really appreciate this take and Simon’s as well. However one thing I want to continue to put out into this discourse is the fact that the polling could just be systemically off and biased in favor of Trump. I know this take can seem like ungrounded hopium, confirmation bias, and/or 2012 poll unskewing nonsense, but we know polling can have these biases (see eg 2016/2020 Dem favored bias) and there are reasons to be skeptical of what the polls are telling us.
Specifically, the most subsample demographic cross-tabs are showing extremely large (eg largest in a generation) shifts in vote preference from Biden to Trump for age and race demographics. How likely is it really that Biden is tied or loosing voters under 35 and winning voters over 65? Do these numbers comport meaningfully with the real world primary and special election events we have seen in 2023 and 2024? We should not just dismiss the polls as wrong and fail to act on what they are saying but we also should not just accept them as gospel when they are saying very odd things that conflict with real world observations.
I think it's totally possible the polls are just off, because they're mismodeled, or for some other reasons. But as you say, these models have typically under-rated Trump's strength, not Dems'.
By contrast there's lots of evidence that Biden's unpopularity is unique to him. The same polls that have him getting crushed in swing states have incumbent Dems in those states doing just fine. A simple story about Biden getting an unfair shake, while memory of Trump has faded, fits the facts just as well as a theory about the polls being off, without having to delve into theory.
So this is an important caveat for sure. However, the modals and methodologies pollsters use are not static and it’s generally not historically true for poll errors to consistently miss in the same way. Second, the polling we are seeing basically only shows Biden being outpolled by some Senate candidates the generic congressional ballot and alternative presidential candidates show similar headwinds for Dems.
The danger with all of this is that it’s confirmation bias. But to me the thing that keeps tripping me up on accepting the polling at full face value is the lack of non-polling events that corroborate the massive demographic shifts most of the polling is presently predicting.
In retrospect, we did a disservice by insisting Donald be deplatformed. When his insanity was removed from the daily “in your face” of his presidency, people forgot what a total whack job he is and aren’t seeing his faculties diminish even further in real time. As the election moves forward and we stop assuming *everybody knows who Donald is already* and start shoving his bullshit back into people’s faces, I think the polls will start to shift. Additionally, the Biden camp has also not stood in the way of the *protest votes* (uncommitted, etc.). They’re hoping by letting people air their frustrations in the primary rather than holding it all in and withholding their votes in November that they’ll come back more easily. To, me at least, it seems like these same sentiments are being expressed in polls - women tied between Donnie and Joe? Seriously? Umm, no. Dean Phillips polling at 15%? Protest answer. Ffs, Dean even called out that polling result.
For now, I’m on Simon’s Team Hopium and will not succumb to panic (well, full panic) for another 6 weeks or so.
At least for me, it is not "Team Panic" OR "Team Biden-or-Bust." I'm a card carrying member of both teams!
My feeling is there are too many people not paying attention. They have no idea of what Trump is planning, they have no clue about Project 2025. I have talked to some of these people. I really believe abortion and reproductive freedom is going to be a huge issue. We just need to make sure everyone knows what’s at stake.
I'll reiterate, any Democrat can win anywhere, even in R+30 counties, as long as the Democrat hammers on Dobbs all day every day. Prevaricate or try to straddle and lose lose lose.
Agree!!
Prediction: You will be doing no such thing, Brian.
Consider what you’re suggesting here. You’re considering giving Donald Trump veto power over the Democratic ticket. I know that doesn’t seem like what we’re doing here, but it literally is.
If Biden isn’t “ahead by two or three points”, by late April, presumably in the RCP polling average, then—solely because Trump is the nominee—you’re going to clamor to ditch the president we think has done a damn good job. And probably his historic running mate, too.
More or less, you’re suggesting granting Trump even more power than he already has, letting our fear of him ironically do his work for him, half a year before a single vote has been cast.
Think carefully about that logic train before you take it to its destination.
You’ve rightfully bashed Dems for years when they failed to do the right thing, cravenly cowered before right-wing mendacity, or refused to call out bad faith bullshit when they saw it.
Explain how letting our fear of a Trump dictatorship push us to ditch a president and vice president we genuinely admire would be any less craven, any less surrendering without a fight on the merits, any less unprincipled.
No incumbent party in American history has thought like that. Perhaps they should; perhaps sincerity and sincere admiration is for losers and suckers.
Perhaps the GOP should have ditched Trump purely due to polls, and the Dems Obama at his lowest point, for the same reason. Perhaps Truman should have been booted at the first sign of trouble, nevermind the grim polls on the eve of Election Day.
Perhaps telling the primary voters their choice is bad and going back to the smoke-filled rooms is how we need to do things to save democracy. Crazier, less intuitive arguments hsve been made of late.
But I tend to think the voters, push comes to shove, can see right through these things. And to quote a certain other pundit, sincerity is an underrated aspect of modern politics.
Prediction: Biden will probably not be up two or three points in the polls, come late April. At least, it’s not wise to cross your fingers and count on it.
Barring an acute medical event, assuming you think Biden has done a good job, I think you will still be with him, and will not be making the case for him to step aside.
That wouldn’t be in keeping with what I’ve read from you, and more to the point, it wouldn’t be any kind of good faith politics as I understand it. It certainly wouldn’t be a moment to be proud of.
So what are you suggesting? That we stick we Biden if it's clear he cannot win? There's no reason for him to be trailing his opponent in every poll. 2024 is an election we cannot afford to lose that's why there is so much panic. We NEED to win and it just seems like fot whatever reason, age, inflation etc that Americans just don't want Biden even though I think he's been a great president. He's favorable numbers are in the 30s. That's a big problem and this article doesn't even mention it. I feel like we're damned no matter what direction we go. Maybe Trump is inevitable
I would not necessarily suggest we stick with Biden if it's "clear he cannot win", no.
But a.) I do not believe that is clear, nor do the polls indicate as such, and,
b.) Parties have stuck with incumbent nominees in the past that polling seemed to indicate "clearly cannot win", and won. Trump himself nearly won, with polls showing him down nearly double digits.
What I am suggesting, in short, is that we man up a little.
It may not seem like it now, but history will condemn us if we don't--far more than, say, if we fear losing more than doing the right thing.
Fixing his Gaza policy would certainly help Biden.
I genuinely can't envision who Biden might hand things off to if he ultimately decided to withdraw.
He would almost certainly hand them off to the vice president, I would think.
A separate question than whether blue-sky political thinking says he “should”, of course. Also, unless his health dictates otherwise, a moot point.
I'm still in panic mode. One swallow does not make a summer.
I don’t know if I’ll ever get behind changing out the horse midstream. There the whole “a bird in hand is better than two in the bush” thing. Biden already beat Trump once and only one of two things will be true in 2024:
1. Biden will win again
2. Americans will have decided that they WANT what Trump is offering…and that means it doesn’t matter who the Dems nominate.
This isn’t 1992. There aren’t many swing voters now. People know who Trump is and either want it or don’t. We need to come to terms with THAT, not be out here wetting the bed and freaking nominating a brand-new candidate in August. That’s beyond an own goal - it’s political malpractice.
When one candidate (Trump) has a captive TV network (no matter how much the owner hates him) as well as hundreds of radio stations programing outright lies about his opponent (Biden) and the other candidate is faced with daily media coverage promoting panic, doubts, or false comparisons (both sides......), no wonder the polls are not reassuring. I am not sure Biden or his campaign can really do much about this. The State of the Union was fine but the memory of it will fade in a week or two.
If we want (we actually don't) to use the horse-race rhetoric much political reporting gets reduced to, this is like a handicap race where the favored horse has to carry more weight than the others. From the get-go we can assume Biden is starting 2 or 3 points down. The best way to deal with that is to get out to vote every "occasional" Democratic voter still breathing that one can find, esp. in states like Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and even (especially) states like North Carolina.
Yes, and we need to listen to those voters and not just drop lit. This is what we’re doing with our deep canvassing project in CO, and it works.
Here’s a description: https://open.substack.com/pub/allisongustavson/p/all-eyes-on-colorado?r=1831a&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
"This is why I’d still like the Biden campaign to be candid with the party rank-and-file about how we got to this point."
Oh heavens, no.
Just what the Biden team needs: a mea culpa that allows the media to drag him through the mud and run endless stories about "the Biden campaign in crisis," "can Biden save his sinking ship from capsizing" etc etc
Project confidence (it's a close race!) and you'll be amazed how well that view will catch on in the media and the electorate.
If Biden is losing in the polls by 10 points, he should still continue in the race because a smashing victory by Donald Trump will show the US what a shithole nation it has become. I already have a home I own in a Western European democracy, and probably most of the people here can leave shithole USA when Trump takes over. I feel sorry for those who hate Trump and MAGA and must suffer under his rule, but you know, "Death to America!" -- once shouted in the streets of Teheran -- now seems like an excellent slogan to me. Let Biden be Biden, keep Biden on the ticket, and let the subhuman douchebags take over your misbegotten country as it reaches the end of its horrible existence.
I don't get why anyone pays attention to polls after the last 8 elections where the polls failed spectacularly to predict the outcomes. It's an exercise in solipsism anyway. Biden is not going away absent an unexpected health emergency.
Even if all of the Biden administration amazing accomplishments are ignored, voting for Trump is a nonstarter for the most important reason: democracy vs. autocracy. Easy decision. Within a democratic administration, there is room to voice your opinion and influence outcomes. As an autocracy, no such opportunity exists. Look at Trump's promises to be a dictator. Look at what Putin is doing to preserve his "re-election." Simple. Vote Democratic. Save the Republic.
I really appreciate this take and Simon’s as well. However one thing I want to continue to put out into this discourse is the fact that the polling could just be systemically off and biased in favor of Trump. I know this take can seem like ungrounded hopium, confirmation bias, and/or 2012 poll unskewing nonsense, but we know polling can have these biases (see eg 2016/2020 Dem favored bias) and there are reasons to be skeptical of what the polls are telling us.
Specifically, the most subsample demographic cross-tabs are showing extremely large (eg largest in a generation) shifts in vote preference from Biden to Trump for age and race demographics. How likely is it really that Biden is tied or loosing voters under 35 and winning voters over 65? Do these numbers comport meaningfully with the real world primary and special election events we have seen in 2023 and 2024? We should not just dismiss the polls as wrong and fail to act on what they are saying but we also should not just accept them as gospel when they are saying very odd things that conflict with real world observations.
I think it's totally possible the polls are just off, because they're mismodeled, or for some other reasons. But as you say, these models have typically under-rated Trump's strength, not Dems'.
By contrast there's lots of evidence that Biden's unpopularity is unique to him. The same polls that have him getting crushed in swing states have incumbent Dems in those states doing just fine. A simple story about Biden getting an unfair shake, while memory of Trump has faded, fits the facts just as well as a theory about the polls being off, without having to delve into theory.
So this is an important caveat for sure. However, the modals and methodologies pollsters use are not static and it’s generally not historically true for poll errors to consistently miss in the same way. Second, the polling we are seeing basically only shows Biden being outpolled by some Senate candidates the generic congressional ballot and alternative presidential candidates show similar headwinds for Dems.
The danger with all of this is that it’s confirmation bias. But to me the thing that keeps tripping me up on accepting the polling at full face value is the lack of non-polling events that corroborate the massive demographic shifts most of the polling is presently predicting.
In retrospect, we did a disservice by insisting Donald be deplatformed. When his insanity was removed from the daily “in your face” of his presidency, people forgot what a total whack job he is and aren’t seeing his faculties diminish even further in real time. As the election moves forward and we stop assuming *everybody knows who Donald is already* and start shoving his bullshit back into people’s faces, I think the polls will start to shift. Additionally, the Biden camp has also not stood in the way of the *protest votes* (uncommitted, etc.). They’re hoping by letting people air their frustrations in the primary rather than holding it all in and withholding their votes in November that they’ll come back more easily. To, me at least, it seems like these same sentiments are being expressed in polls - women tied between Donnie and Joe? Seriously? Umm, no. Dean Phillips polling at 15%? Protest answer. Ffs, Dean even called out that polling result.
For now, I’m on Simon’s Team Hopium and will not succumb to panic (well, full panic) for another 6 weeks or so.