It'll Be Trump's Fault

Donald Trump created this unstable equilibrium; no matter how it breaks down, it will be his fault.

BROADVIEW, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 27: Federal law enforcement agents attack demonstrators protesting outside of an immigrant processing center with a barrage of tear gas and pepper balls on September 27, 2025 in Broadview, Illinois. The demonstrators were protesting a recent surge in ICE apprehensions in the Chicago area, part of a push by the Trump administration dubbed Operation Midway Blitz. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

I think this is worth contemplating publicly, even if many of us worry that broaching the subject risks manifesting something grim into the world. Let’s resolve not to be superstitious about it: Donald Trump and Stephen Miller will probably get the blood in the streets they want eventually.

We don’t know when or how it will unfold, or how the public will come to perceive it. But we do know that no matter how it unfolds or is perceived, it is already their fault, and everyone who cares about the future of the country should be prepared to blame them. Even if the instigating act is perpetrated by an “undesirable” of some kind—an illegal immigrant or a pink haired trans woman with tattoos and a history of shit talking Republicans on the internet.

Obviously, Trump’s side in this fight has drawn blood in the streets already—just not enough to generate an escalatory spiral. But if they really want the spiral, they will push us into one.

Any peaceful resistance movement that buys into the conceit that one bad apple can discredit an entire cause, that its supporters must have a perfect record of good behavior, is doomed to lose—particularly in a country as large, armed, and on edge as ours. Insisting on peacefulness is a moral and strategic imperative, but we can still acknowledge that it’s impossible to control everybody—and it’s definitely impossible to detect every agent provocateur who might seek to infiltrate and discredit the movement.

So we should just define the dynamics honestly, and accept certain likelihoods.

Miller experiences a libidinal rush from dreaming up excuses to crack down harder on the people he hates. And if he gets his wish, a multibillion dollar propaganda machine will whir into motion, spreading blame across the entire anti-Trump majority of the country. It would be up to people like us at that point to reject the blood libel, and remind the country who set the cycle in motion.

To be clear, I assume it will be the armed goons who ultimately break the unstable equilibrium: They have the guns and the far greater inclination to violence. But however a spiral begins, the ensuing breakdown of order in America will be Trump’s fault.

The reasons why will be obvious to everyone who’s been paying attention.