Awesome post. It seems so many Democratic commenters I read on Substack are terrified (their word, not mine) of the Republicans and their stunts, which, to paraphrase Paul Waldman, tend to be sheer nincompoopery. Fetterman's reaction to McCarthy's announcement of the impending impeachment of Biden has always been very funny, and very spot-on.
While too many supposedly liberal folks today would cringe to admit it, the swagger that the Obama/Biden campaign had in 2008 (Full disclosure - I worked on that campaign, in Iowa), is definitely a model for Dems today.
The overwhelming media attitude that year kept insisting America wouldn't elect a Black man, while desperately trying not to admit that racist position. Yet, inside the campaign, the attitude was "Keep doing the work, stay steady, work hard, we got this" - along with a good bit of bravado towards both the media and Republicans.
And for those who may have forgotten, while the media and some of the polling said Obama, Biden, and Dems were certain to fail, Dems kicked everyone's ass, up & down the ballot, across the country.
It's prove of concept that displayed confidence, especially when founded in reality & paired with assertive solid effort, can work wonders.
It's a key lesson from the Obama era that so much of the dirtbag Left has forgotten.
I think this is mostly a commentary on the pundit and political consultant classes. I'm not sure most people are reacting with anything but an eyeroll when the Court of the Mad King gets its socks in a twist. With public polling evidently misleading at best and entirely broken at worst, at this point I'm pretty certain everyone but 400,000 or so feckless idiot "undecideds" have their votes in every national election locked in for the foreseeable future. Either you support what passes for democracy in America or you think the country needs strong white men to lead it out of "darkness". One thing the Republicans understand that Democrats don't, is that the only persuadable voters at this point are idiots, and the Republican show is designed for that audience.
Eh, I think you might be a touch off with your characterization. We can safely assume that the "idiots" are in the core MAGA camp. The undecideds are often low-engagement voters. Unlike people that comment on obscure substack posts :-), these people pay little attention to politics. Whatever noise slipped in while they were busy doing other things is likely what's influencing them.
Dems are generally terrible at communications. And, as this article points out, paralyzing navel-gazing is part of the problem.
I am working on a Deep canvassing pilot program in CO that targets left-leaning low propensity voters. There are a lot of them. Getting a message that resonates with them, making ppl feel heard and seen and connecting the dots between .abstract “politics” and things that matter to them is going to be crucial. I understand why the commenter (above, you’re responding to) feels that way; it’s tempting. But knocking on doors reveals a very different and frankly much less apathy-inducing dynamic.
First, good on you for doing that; every bit helps.
Second, I do know what you mean. Something that becomes crystal clear over time is that seeing people IRL is very different from their keyboard versions.
Fair. I think one of the major problems is that many people don't recognize certain experiences as political issues, so they don't see politics as an answer. I get weird looks from my family when I say, "That's a government problem, you should talk to your assemblyman about it," because they've been exquisitely trained to view government as a problem, not a solution. Hence, low engagement in political life, because who needs more problems?
Yep, that's a good point. Figuring out *why* various voter segments are low-information, low-engagement, etc., seems a worthwhile task. Personally, I guess I've been exquisitely trained :-), as I'm generally suspicious of gov't. To be clear, I certainly think there's a substantial role for gov't (and, btw, it varies heavily based on the locality hierarchy for me). But it's not my go-to reaction to problems. More of a last resort kind of thing. But enough of that detour...
I expect there are a lot of reasons for low engagement. Perhaps some can be addressed. But, in any event, we're stuck with that reality for the moment.
You're right about the media being gulled by Republican bravado. I remember the piece Benjamin Wallace-Wells wrote for The New Yorker just before the 2022 midterms: "Why Republican Insiders Think the G.O.P. Is Poised for a Blowout: The consensus among pollsters and consultants is this Tuesday’s election will be a 'bloodbath' for the Democratic Party." He was spun like a top.
Although I agree with the general point, I think we can’t ignore the fact that the fundamentals on abortion point in the direction of decaying salience over time.
Now, to be clear, several months ago I was specifically arguing that since abortion was getting settled in the state houses, and a GOP federal push seemed unlikely, we should expect the time horizon for the decay to be relatively sooner rather than later.
This obviously needs to be updated, because Republicans said “hold my beer” and actually started threatening a national ban. I knew they were stupid before this, but not THIS stupid - even Trump was trying to distance himself from the pro-life crowd before the party started bucking him.
So, yeah, in 2024 the prospect of a federal ban will keep abortion salient to voters and probably be one of the most determinative factors in the entire election. And abortion will probably continue to be salient as long as Trump is around - the minute he dies, the GOP falls apart under the weight of its contradictions, and the long-delayed reckoning we were expecting after October of 2016 will happen.
But we shouldn’t let this turn into an expectation on our own side that abortion will continue to be a winner forever and ever after THAT. It most surely *won’t*. If anything, once America’s party system reconstitutes itself, abortion will likely be depolarized (by party) and we could even see a Democratic president signing some sort of “final compromise” that more or less resembles the current status quo in Europe on the issue.
So the solution something between telling the Nazis to get fuct, and realizing "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." Bertrand Russell
So the solution something between telling the Nazis to get fuct, and realizing "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." Bertrand Russell
In the back of the book called From Democracy to Democrazy by E. Graham (www.democrazy2020.org) and published July 2023, on page 175, there is a description of the TIME 100 Edition, June 2022 called "The Most Influential Persons of 2021-2022." This edition is described by Edward Felsenthal, the Editor-in-Chief, as "Power for Good." He said "we have one barometer: INFLUENCE. Who stood up? Who stood out? Who shaped this year? Influence, of course, may be for good or for ill - a dichotomy never more visible than in this year's TIME100 which includes the Russian dictator (Putin) behind a brutal war, and his foe, the Ukrainian President (Zelensky) whose leadership has made him a rare heroic figure in our diverse time." The description of Zelensky was written by U.S. President Joe Biden, and the description of Russian President Vladimir Putin was written by Alexei Navalny.
As most of you know, Alexei Navalny, age 47, was murdered this past week in a brutal Penal Colony in Siberia, Russia. A prison where torture, starvation, and cold death were common-place. The world has lost a great hero, and Putin has put another notch in his gun.
The following is Navalny's exact words to describe Putin: "Perhaps Vladimir Putin's true mission is to teach lessons. To everyone - from world leaders and pundits to ordinary people. He has been especially good at this in 2022. He reminded us once again that a path that begins with 'just a little election rigging' ALWAYS ends with a dictatorship."
When I read this statement in TIME100, all I could think of was Donald Trump's call (which was recorded) to Brad Raffensperger (R), the Secretary of State for Georgia pressuring him to "just find 11,780 votes" in order to overturn the 2020 presidential election in their state. As a reminder, Joe Biden won that election by over 7 million votes.
Unfortunately, half our nation are victims of brainwashing who still believe Trump's lies and think the election was stolen. The only person attempting to rig the 2020 election was Trump - and he tried over and over - and eventually staged a coup to attack our Senate and stop our government from operating.
Navalny goes on to say: "Putin has reminded us all of the 'duck test' - if something looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. The very same logic should be applied to this case: if someone destroys the independent media, organizes political assassinations, and sticks to his imperial delusions, then he is a madman capable of causing a bloodbath in the center of Europe in the 21st century . . . However, the answer to the main questions he poses - how to stop an evil madman with an army, nuclear weapons, and membership in the U.N. Security Council - is yet to be answered." Guess what folks - Trump as the President of the United States, also had an army, control of nuclear weapons, and a membership in the U.S. Security Council. Would you trust a convicted felon with the button to kill other populations worldwide? I wouldn't.
Navalny was the leading opposition leader and Presidential contender fighting the tightly-held dictatorship of Vladimir Putin. He exposed corruption and opposed Putin's United Russia party. His Russian following exceeded millions, and many if not most Russian citizens watched or learned about the CNN show that detailed the KGB process and the PROOF of how Putin attempted to murder Navalny with poison. Navalny survived that attempted murder, only to feel the strong need to return to Russia and continue his drive for a free and just Russia. He was immediately arrested and eventually murdered. It was only a week or so ago that I predicted in a blog "that Navalny will not survive the hardships of a Siberian prison." He was sent there to die.
My soul is filled with sorrow and pain - for all of Russia, but also for all of the United States. Our country is on the verge of deciding an election choice between our own "madman" (a convicted sexual predator, a fraud conviction, and 91 criminal felony charges) and a man with almost 50 years experience in public service. The Republicans in Congress have implemented a dishonest and destructive campaign against Biden - all false information and a reflection of how Trump operates - as does Putin.
Biden inherited Trump's fiscal disaster where in his last year in office, Trump spent almost 50% more than our Treasury collected in income. (www.cbo.gov) Anyone or any country that spends 50% more than their income is headed for a fiscal disaster and probably Trump's fifth bankruptcy. By his second year in office, Biden's economic policies corrected this situation - the economy is strong, unemployment is down, the stock market is positive, inflation is down, and so on. Biden is by far, the most qualified person to lead the United States - no matter his age.
We need every American to vote for Biden in this next election as if your life depends on it - because it does!! Elizabeth
I’ve been saying for many years that when the going gets tough for Republicans, they circle the wagons. But when the going gets tough for Democrats, we crawl into the fetal position. Republicans have turned putting on their best game face into an art form. It’s always been bullshit.
What's funny, though, is that folks on the right think *exactly* the same way.
In their view, the GOP always folds, the Dems march in lockstep, the GOP brings knives to gun fights, the Dems will stoop to anything to get their agenda thru, and so on.
While it's surreal, this is what a lot of folks on the right truly believe.
One interesting trend might be that even Jake Sherman and the Punchbowl New crew seem to have shifted to viewing the House Republicans as an inept clown car of ranters and fraudsters rather than any group of elected officials whose opinions are worth taking seriously.
Indeed, that quip from Heston seems down right quaint these days.
A big difference, though, is that saying that about Clinton was intended as a hyperbolic insult. Saying that about Trump is a simple statement of measured fact.
Awesome post. It seems so many Democratic commenters I read on Substack are terrified (their word, not mine) of the Republicans and their stunts, which, to paraphrase Paul Waldman, tend to be sheer nincompoopery. Fetterman's reaction to McCarthy's announcement of the impending impeachment of Biden has always been very funny, and very spot-on.
Solid work today, Brian.
While too many supposedly liberal folks today would cringe to admit it, the swagger that the Obama/Biden campaign had in 2008 (Full disclosure - I worked on that campaign, in Iowa), is definitely a model for Dems today.
The overwhelming media attitude that year kept insisting America wouldn't elect a Black man, while desperately trying not to admit that racist position. Yet, inside the campaign, the attitude was "Keep doing the work, stay steady, work hard, we got this" - along with a good bit of bravado towards both the media and Republicans.
And for those who may have forgotten, while the media and some of the polling said Obama, Biden, and Dems were certain to fail, Dems kicked everyone's ass, up & down the ballot, across the country.
It's prove of concept that displayed confidence, especially when founded in reality & paired with assertive solid effort, can work wonders.
It's a key lesson from the Obama era that so much of the dirtbag Left has forgotten.
I think this is mostly a commentary on the pundit and political consultant classes. I'm not sure most people are reacting with anything but an eyeroll when the Court of the Mad King gets its socks in a twist. With public polling evidently misleading at best and entirely broken at worst, at this point I'm pretty certain everyone but 400,000 or so feckless idiot "undecideds" have their votes in every national election locked in for the foreseeable future. Either you support what passes for democracy in America or you think the country needs strong white men to lead it out of "darkness". One thing the Republicans understand that Democrats don't, is that the only persuadable voters at this point are idiots, and the Republican show is designed for that audience.
Eh, I think you might be a touch off with your characterization. We can safely assume that the "idiots" are in the core MAGA camp. The undecideds are often low-engagement voters. Unlike people that comment on obscure substack posts :-), these people pay little attention to politics. Whatever noise slipped in while they were busy doing other things is likely what's influencing them.
Dems are generally terrible at communications. And, as this article points out, paralyzing navel-gazing is part of the problem.
I am working on a Deep canvassing pilot program in CO that targets left-leaning low propensity voters. There are a lot of them. Getting a message that resonates with them, making ppl feel heard and seen and connecting the dots between .abstract “politics” and things that matter to them is going to be crucial. I understand why the commenter (above, you’re responding to) feels that way; it’s tempting. But knocking on doors reveals a very different and frankly much less apathy-inducing dynamic.
First, good on you for doing that; every bit helps.
Second, I do know what you mean. Something that becomes crystal clear over time is that seeing people IRL is very different from their keyboard versions.
Exactly! If everyone had compulsory irl experiences they’d see the world much differently. And thank you! :)
Fair. I think one of the major problems is that many people don't recognize certain experiences as political issues, so they don't see politics as an answer. I get weird looks from my family when I say, "That's a government problem, you should talk to your assemblyman about it," because they've been exquisitely trained to view government as a problem, not a solution. Hence, low engagement in political life, because who needs more problems?
Yep, that's a good point. Figuring out *why* various voter segments are low-information, low-engagement, etc., seems a worthwhile task. Personally, I guess I've been exquisitely trained :-), as I'm generally suspicious of gov't. To be clear, I certainly think there's a substantial role for gov't (and, btw, it varies heavily based on the locality hierarchy for me). But it's not my go-to reaction to problems. More of a last resort kind of thing. But enough of that detour...
I expect there are a lot of reasons for low engagement. Perhaps some can be addressed. But, in any event, we're stuck with that reality for the moment.
You're right about the media being gulled by Republican bravado. I remember the piece Benjamin Wallace-Wells wrote for The New Yorker just before the 2022 midterms: "Why Republican Insiders Think the G.O.P. Is Poised for a Blowout: The consensus among pollsters and consultants is this Tuesday’s election will be a 'bloodbath' for the Democratic Party." He was spun like a top.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/why-republican-insiders-think-the-gop-is-poised-for-a-blowout
Although I agree with the general point, I think we can’t ignore the fact that the fundamentals on abortion point in the direction of decaying salience over time.
Now, to be clear, several months ago I was specifically arguing that since abortion was getting settled in the state houses, and a GOP federal push seemed unlikely, we should expect the time horizon for the decay to be relatively sooner rather than later.
This obviously needs to be updated, because Republicans said “hold my beer” and actually started threatening a national ban. I knew they were stupid before this, but not THIS stupid - even Trump was trying to distance himself from the pro-life crowd before the party started bucking him.
So, yeah, in 2024 the prospect of a federal ban will keep abortion salient to voters and probably be one of the most determinative factors in the entire election. And abortion will probably continue to be salient as long as Trump is around - the minute he dies, the GOP falls apart under the weight of its contradictions, and the long-delayed reckoning we were expecting after October of 2016 will happen.
But we shouldn’t let this turn into an expectation on our own side that abortion will continue to be a winner forever and ever after THAT. It most surely *won’t*. If anything, once America’s party system reconstitutes itself, abortion will likely be depolarized (by party) and we could even see a Democratic president signing some sort of “final compromise” that more or less resembles the current status quo in Europe on the issue.
The EFFECTS persist, not the "affects."
So the solution something between telling the Nazis to get fuct, and realizing "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." Bertrand Russell
More of the former, unless of the latter, please.
So the solution something between telling the Nazis to get fuct, and realizing "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." Bertrand Russell
More of the former, unless of the latter, please.
In the back of the book called From Democracy to Democrazy by E. Graham (www.democrazy2020.org) and published July 2023, on page 175, there is a description of the TIME 100 Edition, June 2022 called "The Most Influential Persons of 2021-2022." This edition is described by Edward Felsenthal, the Editor-in-Chief, as "Power for Good." He said "we have one barometer: INFLUENCE. Who stood up? Who stood out? Who shaped this year? Influence, of course, may be for good or for ill - a dichotomy never more visible than in this year's TIME100 which includes the Russian dictator (Putin) behind a brutal war, and his foe, the Ukrainian President (Zelensky) whose leadership has made him a rare heroic figure in our diverse time." The description of Zelensky was written by U.S. President Joe Biden, and the description of Russian President Vladimir Putin was written by Alexei Navalny.
As most of you know, Alexei Navalny, age 47, was murdered this past week in a brutal Penal Colony in Siberia, Russia. A prison where torture, starvation, and cold death were common-place. The world has lost a great hero, and Putin has put another notch in his gun.
The following is Navalny's exact words to describe Putin: "Perhaps Vladimir Putin's true mission is to teach lessons. To everyone - from world leaders and pundits to ordinary people. He has been especially good at this in 2022. He reminded us once again that a path that begins with 'just a little election rigging' ALWAYS ends with a dictatorship."
When I read this statement in TIME100, all I could think of was Donald Trump's call (which was recorded) to Brad Raffensperger (R), the Secretary of State for Georgia pressuring him to "just find 11,780 votes" in order to overturn the 2020 presidential election in their state. As a reminder, Joe Biden won that election by over 7 million votes.
Unfortunately, half our nation are victims of brainwashing who still believe Trump's lies and think the election was stolen. The only person attempting to rig the 2020 election was Trump - and he tried over and over - and eventually staged a coup to attack our Senate and stop our government from operating.
Navalny goes on to say: "Putin has reminded us all of the 'duck test' - if something looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. The very same logic should be applied to this case: if someone destroys the independent media, organizes political assassinations, and sticks to his imperial delusions, then he is a madman capable of causing a bloodbath in the center of Europe in the 21st century . . . However, the answer to the main questions he poses - how to stop an evil madman with an army, nuclear weapons, and membership in the U.N. Security Council - is yet to be answered." Guess what folks - Trump as the President of the United States, also had an army, control of nuclear weapons, and a membership in the U.S. Security Council. Would you trust a convicted felon with the button to kill other populations worldwide? I wouldn't.
Navalny was the leading opposition leader and Presidential contender fighting the tightly-held dictatorship of Vladimir Putin. He exposed corruption and opposed Putin's United Russia party. His Russian following exceeded millions, and many if not most Russian citizens watched or learned about the CNN show that detailed the KGB process and the PROOF of how Putin attempted to murder Navalny with poison. Navalny survived that attempted murder, only to feel the strong need to return to Russia and continue his drive for a free and just Russia. He was immediately arrested and eventually murdered. It was only a week or so ago that I predicted in a blog "that Navalny will not survive the hardships of a Siberian prison." He was sent there to die.
My soul is filled with sorrow and pain - for all of Russia, but also for all of the United States. Our country is on the verge of deciding an election choice between our own "madman" (a convicted sexual predator, a fraud conviction, and 91 criminal felony charges) and a man with almost 50 years experience in public service. The Republicans in Congress have implemented a dishonest and destructive campaign against Biden - all false information and a reflection of how Trump operates - as does Putin.
Biden inherited Trump's fiscal disaster where in his last year in office, Trump spent almost 50% more than our Treasury collected in income. (www.cbo.gov) Anyone or any country that spends 50% more than their income is headed for a fiscal disaster and probably Trump's fifth bankruptcy. By his second year in office, Biden's economic policies corrected this situation - the economy is strong, unemployment is down, the stock market is positive, inflation is down, and so on. Biden is by far, the most qualified person to lead the United States - no matter his age.
We need every American to vote for Biden in this next election as if your life depends on it - because it does!! Elizabeth
www.democrazy2020.org
Like that scene from West Wing
I’ve been saying for many years that when the going gets tough for Republicans, they circle the wagons. But when the going gets tough for Democrats, we crawl into the fetal position. Republicans have turned putting on their best game face into an art form. It’s always been bullshit.
What's funny, though, is that folks on the right think *exactly* the same way.
In their view, the GOP always folds, the Dems march in lockstep, the GOP brings knives to gun fights, the Dems will stoop to anything to get their agenda thru, and so on.
While it's surreal, this is what a lot of folks on the right truly believe.
One interesting trend might be that even Jake Sherman and the Punchbowl New crew seem to have shifted to viewing the House Republicans as an inept clown car of ranters and fraudsters rather than any group of elected officials whose opinions are worth taking seriously.
Oh yes Heston COULD be mean. For example, when he told Bill Clinton in a speech to the NRA that America does not trust him with its daughters.
Indeed, that quip from Heston seems down right quaint these days.
A big difference, though, is that saying that about Clinton was intended as a hyperbolic insult. Saying that about Trump is a simple statement of measured fact.