Are Democrats Getting Better At Moving Public Opinion?
A special election in Alabama and a Republican culture war freakout contain hopeful signs.
A special election in a red-leaning-but-swingy Alabama state House district last week swung so heavily left that the Democratic candidate, Marilyn Lands, defeated her Republican opponent by 25 points, after running on a platform of protecting in vitro fertilization from right-wing efforts to restrict or ban it and speaking publicly about her personal experience with abortion.
There is a compelling argument that Democrats and liberals should not take too much solace in these special-election results, because amid the Trump-era realignment, the Democratic voting base comprises people who love to vote in all elections, whereas the Republican voting base is mostly only interested in voting when Donald Trump is on the ballot.
But even stipulating to this note of caution, it’s just plainly true that—whether other issues will ultimately galvanize GOP voters—Democratic voters are extremely galvanized by the post-Dobbs status quo of medieval abortion bans and state intrusions deeper into the reproductive lives of women and families.
New Fox News survey data indicates that even a 15 week abortion ban—once the best-polling “compromise” position for a national settlement on abortion—now polls badly underwater. Indeed, the data completely inverted. “Voters oppose a 15-week ban by 11 points (54% oppose vs. 43% favor), which is in direct contrast with results in 2023 when it was favored by 12 points (42% oppose vs. 54% favor) and in 2022 when it was favored by 13 points (41% vs. 54%).”
I lay this all out in this way to illustrate a broader point about how volatile issue polling is, how drastically it can swing in response to all kinds of events, predictable and unexpected.
BOO DOBBS
Back when Dobbs fell,
and other centrist intellectuals argued that liberals should accept the reality staring them in the face: