AMA Thursday
Chekhov's pun.
In this brief lull between the Harris-Walz campaign’s opening barnstorm and next week’s Democratic convention, the election has settled into a happy (though I suspect temporary) dynamic: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz outworking and outmaneuvering Donald Trump and JD Vance, growing a meaningful lead; Trump responding with increasingly self-destructive desperation.
We can be pretty confident this won’t persist for several reasons: The race may settle well outside the margin of error, but it’s likely to settle somewhere, insofar as Trump has a firm floor of support. Over the years, he’s only fallen through that floor once, that I can recall, after the January 6 insurrection. Otherwise, he clings to about 40 percent, or just a bit less, at his worst.
Simultaneously, campaign-trail reporters are baring fangs at Harris for not submitting to their preferred form of press scrutiny on their schedule. There will be debates. Etc.
And, if you look on the periphery of the headlines, even these past couple weeks, you’ll find it littered with a spilled arsenal of Chekhov’s guns. These include indications that, in desperation, MAGA election officials might simply decline to count votes, so that House Republicans can install Trump as president over the will of the people. Very cool.
Here are some other sources of uncertainty I’ve noticed.