25 Thoughts On The 2025 Elections
Fighting is winning, and now would be a crazy time to pull punches.
Voters flocked back to Democrats everywhere. You can find regional effects in places where there are special reasons for Americans to be repulsed by Donald Trump (cf. northern Virginia) but the bigger story is this uniform tide.
In other words, this was an anti-Trump referendum, and a referendum on the value of fighting Trump. If you hear a Democrat or a pundit attribute the results to local effects, or “health care,” or anything other than the obvious thing staring us all in the face, you’re listening to a fool.
This suggests frontline Democrats and various cowardly strategists should learn to stop worrying and fight Trump. If this had been a national election, it would have been an unusually safe one for swing-territory Democrats, and they would have had Trump-fighting to thank for protecting them. Time to join the party.
Relatedly, Senate Democratic moderates would be insane to reopen the government in exchange for nothing. If they want to drain all the momentum and good will they’ve gained coming out of Tuesday night, I can think of no better way than caving in a fight they’re winning.
Once he’s done reining in these rogue Democrats, Chuck Schumer should explain his mistreatment of Zohran Mamdani, along with his refusal to endorse in the race or even say who he voted for—or else resign from Democratic Party leadership. Either way, he should call Mamdani to apologize.
Schumer’s next call, though, should be to John Bel Edwards, who in turn should re-evaluate his decision last month not to run for Senate in Louisiana.
Democrats did better on Tuesday night than in the analogous off-year election in November 2017, after Donald Trump’s first victory, when Trump had fewer fascist enablers and the resistance defined his presidency right out the gate.
In other words, anti-Trump opposition is probably stronger now than it was eight years ago, when it prefigured a historic midterm wave.
A midterm wave of similar size or larger in 2026 would give Democrats a very decent shot at taking both the House and Senate, and thus the power to freeze the federal judiciary in place.
The returns contain some evidence that the distinction in the public mind between MAGA Republican and non-MAGA Republican has been erased, meaning GOP candidates will have a harder time saving themselves by creating artificial distance between themselves and Trump. The era of Glenn Youngkins outperforming Kari Lakes may be over.
To wit: Entering Tuesday, polls, reporting, and basic powers of perception told us to expect a much closer election in the New Jersey governor’s race than in the Virginia governor’s race. The states are similarly blue, and the Democratic candidates had very similar profiles and politics. But the consensus among experts was that Mikie Sherrill had run a lackluster campaign in New Jersey while Abigail Spanberger had run strong in Virginia. To make matters worse, Sherrill’s opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, kept half an arm’s length from Donald Trump while Spanberger’s opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears, was cut from MAGA cloth.
But in the end Sherrill and Spanberger both romped. The former won by 13 points (absolutely crushing expectations) the latter by 15.2, exceeding optimistic forecasts substantially.
See again about John Bel Edwards. If I’m right about this, he’d be competitive against Bill Cassidy or a MAGA candidate.
All solidarity with James Comey as he fights off Trump’s malicious prosecution, but Tuesday should leave no doubt about his regrettable, history-changing legacy. Hear me out.